ABSTRACT

Italy was the first European state affected by COVID-19. Despite many uncertainties, citizens chose to trust the authorities and their trust was pivotal. This research aims to investigate the contribution of Italian citizens’ trust in Public Institutions and how it influenced the acceptance of the necessary counter measures. Applying linear regression to a dataset of 4260 Italian respondents, we modelled trust from its main cognitive components, with particular reference to competence and willingness. Therefore, exploiting agent-based modelling, we investigated how these components affected trust and how trust evolution influences the acceptance of these restrictive measures. Our analysis confirms the key role of competence and willingness as cognitive components of trust. Results also suggest that a generic attempt to raise the average trust, besides being challenging, may not be the best strategy to increase compliance. Furthermore, reasoning at category level is a fundamental to identify the best components on which to invest.

摘要

意大利是第一个受 COVID-19 影响的欧洲国家。尽管存在许多不确定性，但公民选择信任当局，而他们的信任至关重要。本研究旨在调查意大利公民对公共机构信任的贡献，以及它如何影响对必要反制措施的接受。将线性回归应用于 4260 名意大利受访者的数据集，我们根据其主要认知成分对信任进行建模，特别是能力和意愿。因此，利用基于代理的建模，我们研究了这些组件如何影响信任以及信任演变如何影响对这些限制措施的接受。我们的分析证实了能力和意愿作为信任的认知组成部分的关键作用。结果还表明，提高平均信任度的一般尝试，除了具有挑战性之外，这可能不是提高合规性的最佳策略。此外，类别级别的推理是确定要投资的最佳组件的基础。