We investigate the impact of hurricanes on airplane and cruise ship arrivals in the Caribbean. To this end, we construct a monthly panel of airline and cruise ship arrivals and hurricane destruction and employ a panel vector autoregressive model with an exogenous shock (VARX) to quantify the dynamic effects of tourist arrivals after a hurricane for 18 Caribbean countries over the period 2000–2013. The results suggest an immediate decline in the month of a strike and up to one month after on cruise ship (2.33 and 1.21 percentage points) and airplane (0.57 and 0.27 percentage points) arrivals. Moreover, a strong recovery in airplane arrivals in months 3–6 following a hurricane was sufficient to induce a net positive effect of around 2 percentage points of total tourist arrivals into the region.

我们调查了飓风对加勒比地区飞机和游轮抵达的影响。为此，我们构建了一个关于航空公司和游轮抵达和飓风破坏的月度面板，并采用带有外生冲击 (VARX) 的面板矢量自回归模型来量化这段时间里 18 个加勒比国家飓风过后游客抵达的动态影响2000-2013 年。结果表明，罢工当月和最多一个月后，游轮（2.33 和 1.21 个百分点）和飞机（0.57 和 0.27 个百分点）的到达率立即下降。此外，飓风过后 3-6 个月飞机抵达人数的强劲复苏足以使该地区的总游客人数产生约 2 个百分点的净积极影响。