Abstract

The recent successes and failures of political polling invite several questions: Why did the polls get it wrong in some high-profile races? Conversely, how is it that polls can perform so well, even given all the evident challenges of conducting and interpreting them?

中文翻译：

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政治投票和选举预测的失败和成功

摘要

最近政治投票的成功和失败引发了几个问题：为什么在一些备受瞩目的竞选中投票会出错？相反，即使考虑到进行和解释民意调查的所有明显挑战，民意调查怎么能表现得如此出色？