ABSTRACT

Using data for Dutch municipal elections between 1998 and 2018, this paper finds two dominant trends: more political fragmentation and increasing electoral success of independent local parties. The relative size of local parties in the council rises from 25% in 1998 to 37% in 2018 and the relative share of their aldermen from 21% to 32%. When understanding the increasing share of local parties, the number of inhabitants, regional diversity, the share of elderly people and the election year dummies are important explanations. Looking at the changes after large decentralisations, also indications for a welfare hypothesis were found, if fixed effects are included. Following an empirical approach for AfD in local elections in German state of Lower Saxony, the impact of the anti-establishment Freedom Party on contesting local parties was analysed and this influence turned out to be small. This also gives an indication that Dutch local parties are becoming more established.

摘要

本文使用 1998 年至 2018 年荷兰市政选举的数据，发现了两个主要趋势：更多的政治分裂和独立地方政党的选举成功率不断提高。议会中地方政党的相对规模从 1998 年的 25% 上升到 2018 年的 37%，其市议员的相对份额从 21% 上升到 32%。在理解地方政党比例增加时，居民数量、地区多样性、老年人比例和选举年虚拟变量是重要的解释。观察大规模权力下放后的变化，如果包括固定效应，也会发现福利假设的迹象。在德国下萨克森州的地方选举中采用 AfD 的经验方法，分析了反建制自由党对地方政党竞选的影响，结果证明这种影响很小。这也表明荷兰当地政党正在变得更加成熟。