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Modeling of flood extremes using regional frequency analysis of sites of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
Journal of Flood Risk Management ( IF 4.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-08-21 , DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12751
Muhammad Shafeeq ul Rehman Khan 1 , Zamir Hussain 2 , Ishfaq Ahmad 1 , Farzana Noor 1
Affiliation  

The study provides results of regional frequency analysis (RFA) using annual maximum peak flows (AMPF) of 36 sites located on various streams and rivers of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Assumptions of randomness, independent and identical distribution regarding AMPF at each site have been validated using different statistical tests. The region of 36 sites is heterogeneous as confirmed by L-moments based heterogeneity measure. Therefore, it is subdivided into four homogeneous regions considering the most influential site characteristic among available using wards clustering method and Euclidean distance. To identify good-fit-regional distribution(s), from a set of popular three-parameter distributions, L-moment ratio diagram and |Z-Dist| statistic are used as goodness-of-fit criteria. To obtain the most suitable distribution having robust properties, a simulation-based assessment analysis is performed for each homogeneous region considering root mean square error and 95% error bounds of regional quantiles as accuracy measures. Due to non-linearity (in the functional relationship between the mean of AMPF at various sites and their corresponding site characteristics) and the existence of multicollinearity between the site characteristics, radial basis function (RBF) network has been used for the estimation of quantiles at ungauged sites. The results show that the adopted methodology is useful for the estimation of quantiles at gauged and ungauged sites within the defined homogeneous regions.

中文翻译:

使用巴基斯坦开伯尔 - 普赫图赫瓦地区的区域频率分析模拟洪水极端事件

该研究使用位于巴基斯坦开伯尔-普赫图赫瓦省各种溪流和河流的 36 个站点的年度最大峰值流量 (AMPF) 提供区域频率分析 (RFA) 结果。已经使用不同的统计测试验证了每个站点关于 AMPF 的随机性、独立和相同分布的假设。通过基于 L 矩的异质性测量证实,36 个位点的区域是异质的。因此,考虑到可用的病房聚类方法和欧几里德距离中最具影响力的站点特征,将其细分为四个同质区域。从一组流行的三参数分布、L 矩比图和 | Z-距离| 统计量用作拟合优度标准。为了获得最合适的具有稳健特性的分布,考虑到均方根误差和区域分位数的 95% 误差界限作为精度度量,对每个均质区域执行基于模拟的评估分析。由于非线性(在各个站点的AMPF平均值与其对应站点特征之间的函数关系中)以及站点特征之间存在多重共线性,径向基函数(RBF)网络已被用于估计分位数未经审查的网站。结果表明,所采用的方法可用于在定义的同质区域内估计测量和未测量站点的分位数。
更新日期:2021-08-21
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