To make sound decisions about the future of fisheries, managers need to have a good understanding of the amount of fish that have been caught over long periods. Unfortunately, current stock assessment processes are often flawed, as they are frequently based on data time series that do not represent the full range of change. The process of selecting a shortened (or truncated) time series may lead to misconceptions regarding the fishery's status and impact on management decisions. This study investigates shifting baseline effects in official stock assessments from the Ransom Myers Legacy Stock Assessment Database that used truncated catch time series. The findings suggest that truncated time series often fail to account for important features, such as historical biomass maxima, past recoveries, low abundance levels and biomass fluctuations, whose omission can bias reference points and perceptions of stock status. This study emphasises the importance of considering long-term data wherever possible to improve historical scientific baselines and inform sustainable fisheries management.

中文翻译：

---

鱼类种群评估中基线变化的管理影响

为了对渔业的未来做出合理的决定，管理者需要对长期捕捞的鱼量有一个很好的了解。不幸的是，当前的库存评估过程经常存在缺陷，因为它们经常基于不能代表全部变化范围的数据时间序列。选择缩短（或截断）时间序列的过程可能会导致对渔业状况的误解和对管理决策的影响。本研究调查了使用截断捕获时间序列的 Ransom Myers 传统库存评估数据库中官方库存评估中基线效应的变化。研究结果表明，截断的时间序列通常无法解释重要的特征，例如历史生物量最大值、过去的回收率、低丰度水平和生物量波动，其遗漏可能会影响参考点和对库存状态的看法。本研究强调尽可能考虑长期数据以改善历史科学基线并为可持续渔业管理提供信息的重要性。