ABSTRACT

The aim of this study is to analyse the effects of climate variability on the poverty of artisanal fishers in Peru. First, an index of vulnerability of artisanal fishers in the face of climate variability along the Peruvian coast was calculated. This index consists of three components (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability) and classifies the vulnerability of a study area in a range from 0 to 1. Second, using the generalized propensity score method, the effect of climate variability that occurred in 2015 on the poverty of artisanal fishers in three areas of the Peruvian coast was estimated. This effect is calculated through the variation of the probability of poverty among the artisanal fishers from high to low according to the degree of economic impact. The results confirmed a positive relationship between the calculated vulnerability index and poverty levels; the North was the most vulnerable area (0.67), followed by the Centre (0.61) and the South (0.43). Likewise, the areas with stronger effects of climate variability exhibited greater variation in the probability of poverty (North: 12%, Centre: 11% and South: 4%). Finally, the results show the importance of the adaptive capacity of artisanal fishers in the face of changes in climatic conditions.

摘要

本研究的目的是分析气候变化对秘鲁手工渔民贫困的影响。首先，计算了个体渔民面对秘鲁海岸气候多变性的脆弱性指数。该指数由三个分量（暴露度、敏感性和适应性）组成，将研究区域的脆弱性分类在 0 到 1 的范围内。其次，使用广义倾向得分方法，2015 年发生的气候变率对估计秘鲁海岸三个地区手工渔民的贫困状况。这种影响是通过手工渔民的贫困概率根据经济影响程度从高到低的变化来计算的。结果证实了计算的脆弱性指数与贫困水平之间存在正相关关系；北部是最脆弱的地区（0.67），其次是中部（0.61）和南部（0.43）。同样，受气候变率影响较大的地区，贫困概率的差异也更大（北部：12%，中部：11%，南部：4%）。最后，结果显示了个体渔民在气候条件变化时的适应能力的重要性。