This study evaluates the potential impacts of the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area's (AfCFTA) tariff modalities on tax revenues, industrial production, trade flows, welfare and consumption for seven central African countries. Drawing on data from member states and the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database, two methodologies are applied in the study. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) and partial equilibrium (PE) are used to evaluate the long- and short-term effects respectively. The results show that the reduction in tariff barriers provided by the AfCFTA will lead to a decrease in tariff revenue in some Central African countries in the short term. However, in the long term, these losses remain largely offset by the socio-economic benefit issues generated by the implementation of the agreement, particularly in terms of economic growth and the well-being of the region's population. To cub these revenue deficits, this paper encourages Central African countries to ratify and implement the AfCFTA. Also, they should diligently adopt all necessary reforms that could help reap the potential long-term gains.

中文翻译：

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非洲大陆自由贸易区的潜力：中非部分均衡和一般均衡模型相结合的评估

本研究评估了实施非洲大陆自由贸易区 (AfCFTA) 关税模式对七个中部非洲国家的税收、工业生产、贸易流量、福利和消费的潜在影响。利用来自成员国的数据和全球贸易分析项目 (GTAP) 数据库，本研究采用了两种方法。可计算一般均衡 (CGE) 和部分均衡 (PE) 分别用于评估长期和短期影响。结果表明，AfCFTA提供的关税壁垒降低，短期内将导致部分中非国家关税收入减少。然而，从长远来看，这些损失在很大程度上仍被协议执行所产生的社会经济利益问题所抵消，特别是在经济增长和该地区人口的福祉方面。为了减少这些收入赤字，本文鼓励中非国家批准和实施 AfCFTA。此外，他们应该努力采取一切必要的改革，以帮助获得潜在的长期收益。