Forecasting the effects of global change on biodiversity is necessary to anticipate the threats operating at different scales in space and time. Climate change may create unsuitable environmental conditions, forcing species to move to persist. However, land-use changes create barriers that limit the access of some species to future available habitats. Here, we project the impacts of climate and land-use change on 228 Neotropical bat species by forecasting changes in environmental suitability, while accounting for the effect of habitat type specialization and simulating dispersal across suitable patches. We also identify the most vulnerable ecoregions and those that may offer future stable refugia. We further investigate potential functional changes by analysing the response of different trophic guilds. We found that the range contraction of habitat specialists, especially frugivores, was more frequent and stronger under all simulated scenarios. Projected changes differ markedly across ecoregions. While the Amazon region is likely to undergo high turnover rates in bat composition, the Andean grassland, Cerrado and Chaco might experience the greatest losses. The expansion of habitat generalists, which forage in open areas and commonly establish large colonies in manmade structures, coupled with the range contraction of habitat specialists is projected to homogenize bat communities across the Neotropics. Overall, dispersal will likely be the key for the future of Neotropical bat diversity. Therefore, safeguarding the refugia highlighted here, by expanding and connecting the existing network of protected areas, for example, may allow species to move in response to global change.

预测全球变化对生物多样性的影响对于预测在不同空间和时间尺度上运行的威胁是必要的。气候变化可能会造成不合适的环境条件，迫使物种迁徙以维持生存。然而，土地利用的变化造成了限制某些物种进入未来可用栖息地的障碍。在这里，我们通过预测环境适宜性的变化来预测气候和土地利用变化对 228 种新热带蝙蝠物种的影响，同时考虑栖息地类型专业化的影响并模拟在合适斑块中的扩散。我们还确定了最脆弱的生态区和那些可能提供未来稳定避难所的生态区。我们通过分析不同营养公会的反应来进一步研究潜在的功能变化。我们发现，在所有模拟场景下，栖息地专家，尤其是食果动物的范围收缩更加频繁和强烈。不同生态区的预计变化显着不同。虽然亚马逊地区的蝙蝠组成可能会经历高周转率，但安第斯草原、塞拉多和查科可能会遭受最大的损失。栖息地多面手的扩张，它们在开放区域觅食，通常在人造结构中建立大群，加上栖息地专家的范围缩小，预计将使新热带地区的蝙蝠群落同质化。总体而言，扩散可能是未来新热带蝙蝠多样性的关键。因此，通过扩大和连接现有的保护区网络来保护这里强调的避难所，例如，