In the background of global warming, the necessity for finding a new predictor of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is realised recently as the relationship between the ISMR and the predictive physical parameters keeps changing both in space and time. We developed a linkage between the satellite-derived sea ice over the Southern Ocean and ISMR through the interaction of physical processes occurring between the cryosphere, hydrosphere, and atmospheric environment. The statistical and possible physical linkage were explored using consistent and reliable 38-year time series observations. Lead-lag cross correlation indicated a significant relationship between Southern Ocean sea ice (SOSI) extent and ISMR over the Bellingshausen–Amundsen Sea (BAS). The most significant relationship was obtained in austral autumn (r = −0.5, p < 0.05) with no time lag. We analysed atmospheric circulation pattern over the BAS and Ross Sea corresponding to extreme rainfall events. Excess (deficit) rainfall years showed anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) wind patterns that led to anomalous positive (negative) air temperature that facilitated anomalous negative (positive) sea ice conditions in BAS. Hence, the excess rainfall (deficit) events were observed corresponding to a large negative (positive) anomalous sea ice condition in the BAS. This linkage likely occurred through El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) associated sea surface temperature (SST) variability. To find out the dominant mode of variability and common frequency distribution in the SOSI extent, Niño3.4 SST and ISMR, we have performed the wavelet analysis for exploring the coherence between the respective variables. The spectral analysis showed that both the SOSI extent and ISMR have dominant oscillations in 2–8 years frequency bands similar to the ENSO variability. This observed relationship can be used as the input for future works for physically linking the BAS sea ice condition with the ISMR through the dynamic and thermodynamic ocean-atmospheric components.

在全球变暖的背景下，由于 ISMR 与预测物理参数之间的关系在空间和时间上不断变化，因此最近意识到寻找新的印度夏季风降雨量 (ISMR) 预测器的必要性。我们通过冰冻圈、水圈和大气环境之间发生的物理过程的相互作用，在南大洋上空的卫星衍生海冰和 ISMR 之间建立了联系。使用一致且可靠的 38 年时间序列观察来探索统计和可能的物理联系。超前滞后互相关表明南大洋海冰 (SOSI) 范围与贝灵斯豪森-阿蒙森海 (BAS) 上的 ISMR 之间存在显着关系。最显着的关系出现在 austral 秋季 ( r = -0.5, p < 0.05) 没有时间滞后。我们分析了与极端降雨事件相对应的 BAS 和罗斯海的大气环流模式。过量（亏缺）降雨年显示出异常的气旋（反气旋）风模式，导致异常的正（负）气温，促进了 BAS 的异常负（正）海冰条件。因此，观察到过量降雨（亏缺）事件对应于 BAS 中大量的负（正）异常海冰条件。这种联系可能是通过厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 (ENSO) 相关的海面温度 (SST) 变化发生的。为了找出 SOSI 范围、Niño3.4 SST 和 ISMR 中变异的主要模式和共同频率分布，我们进行了小波分析以探索各个变量之间的一致性。频谱分析表明，SOSI 范围和 ISMR 在 2-8 年频带内都具有与 ENSO 变异性相似的主导振荡。这种观察到的关系可以用作未来工作的输入，通过动力和热动力海洋-大气成分将 BAS 海冰条件与 ISMR 物理联系起来。