Given the complexity and uncertainty of the current COVID-19 risks, the elderly people in long-term care facilities are at the highest risk for infection. In order to study the prevention and control strategies of COVID-19 risks in long-term care facilities, this paper uses the prospect theory to construct the decision-making model of COVID-19 risk behavior of long-term care facilities, analyses the risk behavior strategies of the caregivers and managers, and reveals the impact of risk management cost, risk loss and external supervision on the risk behavior decision-making of the caregivers and managers. Furthermore, from the perspective of long-term care facilities, this paper analyzes the constraints that enable it to achieve optimal risk management strategy. Combined with the simulation analysis, it is found that the decision of risk behavior of the caregivers and managers is positively related to the risk behavior choice, risk loss, and supervision. Then, only when the incentives set by the supervision are within a reasonable range can the caregivers and managers be motivated to take proactive risk management strategies. The study has important theoretical and practical significance for the management of COVID-19 risks in long-term care facilities.

鉴于当前 COVID-19 风险的复杂性和不确定性，长期护理机构中的老年人感染的风险最高。为了研究长期护理机构COVID-19风险的防控策略，本文运用前景理论构建了长期护理机构COVID-19风险行为决策模型，分析了长期护理机构的风险行为。照护者和管理者的行为策略，揭示风险管理成本、风险损失和外部监督对照护者和管理者风险行为决策的影响。此外，本文从长期护理机构的角度分析了使其实现最佳风险管理策略的约束条件。结合仿真分析，发现看护者和管理者的风险行为决策与风险行为选择、风险损失和监管呈正相关。那么，只有当监管者设定的激励在合理范围内时，才能激励看护者和管理者采取主动的风险管理策略。该研究对长期护理机构的COVID-19风险管理具有重要的理论和实践意义。