Abstract

Interest in nuclear power has grown in some Middle Eastern states despite poor economics, seismic activity, and attacks on nuclear facilities in the region. This article assesses risks from cesium-137 release and dispersal from spent nuclear fuel fires at Barakah in the United Arab Emirates and Bushehr in Iran to public health, the water supply, and the food security of major Persian Gulf cities. Doha, Dammam, Al-Hofuf, and Manama are most at risk of receiving 1.5 MBq/m² for a spent fuel fire at Barakah, while a spent fuel fire at Bushehr could affect Shiraz, Ahvaz, Basrah, and Kuwait City, albeit at lower probabilities. Absent a decision to end nuclear power in the region, options for reducing the potential risks of spent fuel fires on Persian Gulf populations include the timely transfer of spent fuel from pools into safer dry cask storage, multilateral disaster-response planning, and a commitment not to attack nuclear facilities.

摘要

尽管该地区经济不景气、地震活动频繁且核设施遭到袭击，但中东一些国家对核电的兴趣仍在增长。本文评估了阿拉伯联合酋长国巴拉卡和伊朗布什尔的乏核燃料火灾中铯 137 的释放和扩散对波斯湾主要城市的公共卫生、供水和粮食安全的风险。多哈、达曼、胡富夫和麦纳麦最有可能收到 1.5 MBq/m ²Barakah 的乏燃料火灾，而 Bushehr 的乏燃料火灾可能会影响设拉子、阿瓦士、巴士拉和科威特市，尽管概率较低。在该地区没有结束核电的决定的情况下，减少乏燃料火灾对波斯湾人口的潜在风险的选择包括及时将乏燃料从水池转移到更安全的干桶储存、多边灾难响应计划以及承诺不攻击核设施。