How important are ambassadors in international politics? While a growing body of research stresses the importance of diplomacy in international politics, it remains unclear if individual ambassadors make a significant difference or what attributes make for an effective ambassador. This paper explores these questions through a systematic analysis of 2,730 US ambassadors between 1946 and 2014. The United States is distinctive in that it sends a sizable number of noncareer political appointees to serve as ambassadors. This provides a unique opportunity to examine how an ambassador's experience shapes where they are placed and how they perform. Using various techniques to address selection effects, including matching, I find that the United States is less likely to experience a militarized dispute with a host nation when it is represented by a political ambassador. Moreover, political ambassadors with professional experience in politics or the military, those who are close to the president, and those who are appointed in permissive congressional environments are less likely to experience militarized disputes during their tenure. Individual ambassadors matter, but diplomatic experience alone is not the only attribute that makes for an effective ambassador.

中文翻译：

---

你有经验吗？美国大使与国际危机，1946-2014

大使在国际政治中有多重要？尽管越来越多的研究强调外交在国际政治中的重要性，但尚不清楚个别大使是否会产生重大影响，或者是哪些特质对一位有效的大使而言至关重要。本文通过对 1946 年至 2014 年间 2,730 名美国大使的系统分析来探讨这些问题。美国的独特之处在于它派遣了大量非职业政治任命者担任大使。这提供了一个独特的机会来检查大使的体验如何影响他们的位置以及他们的表现。使用各种技术来解决选择效果，包括匹配，我发现，当东道国由政治大使代表时，美国不太可能与东道国发生军事争端。此外，具有政治或军事专业经验的政治大使、与总统关系密切的人以及在宽松的国会环境中任命的人在任职期间发生军事化争端的可能性较小。大使个人很重要，但外交经验并不是成为一名有效大使的唯一因素。