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Analyzing the effect of anisotropic spatial correlations of earthquake intensity measures on the result of seismic risk and resilience assessment of the portfolio of buildings and infrastructure systems
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering ( IF 4.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-08-17 , DOI: 10.1007/s10518-021-01203-z
Morteza Abbasnejadfard 1 , Morteza Bastami 1 , Afshin Fallah 2 , Alireza Garakaninezhad 3
Affiliation  

The seismic risk assessment of spatially distributed assets requires a seismic hazard that considers the spatial correlations of earthquake intensity measures (IMs). Several spatial correlation models have been developed to address this concern, but the majority of existing models are based on the hypothesis of isotropy. Recent investigations revealed that the assumption of isotropy is not generally valid, and the anisotropy condition should be taken into account when considering the spatial correlations of earthquake IMs. On the other hand, it is necessary to investigate the significance of the inclusion of anisotropy in seismic risk and resiliency assessment. The main objective of the current study is to address this issue using three different spatial correlation models. Two of them are based on the linear model of coregionalization method, which describes the spatial correlation of earthquake IMs from the isotropy point of view. The third model is based on the latent dimensions method, which can take the anisotropy into account. The results of the current study reveal that the ignorance of anisotropy of spatial correlations of earthquake IMs causes unrealistic loss estimation and leads to inaccurate resilience assessment of spatially distributed assets and systems. It is demonstrated specifically that the isotropic models generally overestimate the infrequent loss values which is on the safe side, but underestimate the frequent loss values that is non-conservative.



中文翻译:

分析地震烈度措施的各向异性空间相关性对建筑物和基础设施系统组合的地震风险和弹性评估结果的影响

空间分布资产的地震风险评估需要考虑地震烈度措施 (IM) 的空间相关性的地震危害。已经开发了几种空间相关模型来解决这个问题,但大多数现有模型都基于各向同性假设。最近的调查表明,各向同性假设普遍不成立,在考虑地震 IM 的空间相关性时应考虑各向异性条件。另一方面,有必要研究在地震风险和弹性评估中包含各向异性的意义。当前研究的主要目标是使用三种不同的空间相关模型来解决这个问题。其中两个是基于coregionalization方法的线性模型,它从各向同性的角度描述了地震 IM 的空间相关性。第三种模型基于潜在维度法,可以考虑各向异性。目前的研究结果表明,对地震 IM 空间相关性各向异性的无知会导致损失估计不切实际,并导致对空间分布资产和系统的弹性评估不准确。具体表明,各向同性模型通常高估了安全的偶发损失值,但低估了非保守的频繁损失值。目前的研究结果表明,对地震 IM 空间相关性各向异性的无知会导致损失估计不切实际,并导致对空间分布资产和系统的弹性评估不准确。具体表明,各向同性模型通常高估了安全的偶发损失值,但低估了非保守的频繁损失值。目前的研究结果表明,对地震 IM 空间相关性各向异性的无知导致了不切实际的损失估计,并导致对空间分布资产和系统的弹性评估不准确。具体表明,各向同性模型通常高估了安全的偶发损失值,但低估了非保守的频繁损失值。

更新日期:2021-08-19
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