Purpose

The purpose of this study was to measure the bias on a binary option's effect estimate that appeared in the types of questions asked and in the placement changes of public service users.

Design/methodology/approach

The author designed Monte Carlo simulations with the analytical strategy of latent trait theory leveraging a probability of care-placement change. The author used difference-in-difference (DID) method to estimate the effects of care settings.

Findings

The author explained the extent of discrepancy between the estimates and the true values of care service effects in changes across time. The time trend of in-home care for the combined effect of in-home care, general maturity, and other environmental factors was estimated in a biased manner, while the bias for the estimate of the incremental effect for foster care could be negligible.

Research limitations/implications

This study was designed based on individual child-unit only. Therefore, higher-level units, such as care setting or cluster, county, and state, should be considered for the simulation model.

Social implications

This study contributed to illuminating an overlooked facet in causal inferences that embrace disproportionate selection biases that appear in categorical data scales in public management research.

Originality/value

To model the nuance of a disproportionate self-selection problem, the author constructed a scenario surrounding a caseworker's judgment of care placement in the child welfare system and investigated potential bias of the caseworker's discretion. The unfolding model has not been widely used in public management research, but it can be usefully leveraged for the estimation of a decision probability.

中文翻译：

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在公共管理研究中模拟自我选择：儿童福利系统中个案工作者自由裁量权的影响

目的

本研究的目的是衡量在提出的问题类型和公共服务用户的位置变化中出现的对二元期权效果估计的偏差。

设计/方法/方法

作者利用潜在特征理论的分析策略设计了蒙特卡罗模拟，利用了护理安置变化的可能性。作者使用差异中的差异 (DID) 方法来估计护理环境的影响。

发现

作者解释了随时间变化的护理服务效果的估计值与真实值之间的差异程度。家庭护理、一般成熟度和其他环境因素的综合影响的家庭护理时间趋势以有偏的方式估计，而寄养增量效应估计的偏差可以忽略不计。

研究限制/影响

本研究仅基于个别儿童单位而设计。因此，模拟模型应考虑更高级别的单位，例如护理机构或集群、县和州。

社会影响

这项研究有助于阐明因果推断中一个被忽视的方面，其中包含出现在公共管理研究的分类数据量表中的不成比例的选择偏差。

原创性/价值

为了模拟不成比例的自我选择问题的细微差别，作者围绕个案工作者对儿童福利系统中的护理安置的判断构建了一个场景，并调查了个案工作者自由裁量权的潜在偏见。展开模型尚未广泛用于公共管理研究，但可以有效地利用它来估计决策概率。