Context: Long-term changes in the breeding phenology of bird communities have been widely studied. For many species, breeding appears to be starting earlier as temperatures increase. For south-eastern Australia, such a trend has not so far been demonstrated.

Aims: The aim was to determine how the date of laying of the first egg (FE; for sedentary species) or arrival times (for migratory species) responded to climatic factors such as rainfall, air temperature and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and whether FE or arrival time showed a trend through time.

Methods: The date of laying of the first egg (FE) for 13 sedentary species of birds was recorded over 18 (1975–1984 and 2007–2014) breeding seasons (August to January) at a single site in a coastal forest in south-eastern Australia. The arrival times for seven migratory species were also recorded for these seasons.

Key results: Linear mixed models showed that FE was negatively correlated with the mean monthly SOI for April to July (A-J SOI), the period directly before the breeding season. Eggs were laid earlier when A-J SOI was positive and later when it was negative. SOIs calculated over different combinations of months showed that those for the January to March period had no influence on FE. FE was not related to minimum or maximum temperatures during April to July, despite increases in temperature between 1975 and 2014, nor was it related to rainfall between April and July. Mixed linear models showed that arrival date for migratory species became earlier between 1975 and 2014, but was uninfluenced by A-J SOI or rainfall.

Conclusions: Migratory species arrived earlier by 0.27 days per year. However, this was at least an order of magnitude smaller than annual temporal changes in FE for sedentary species (6–7 days) associated with cyclical SOI fluctuations. Changes in SOI dominated the annual breeding phenology of the community.

Implications: The mechanisms by which A-J SOI influences the timing of nesting may be related to the primary productivity of forests and the influence of this on insect abundance. There are few data on these factors.

背景：鸟类群落繁殖物候的长期变化已得到广泛研究。对于许多物种来说，随着温度的升高，繁殖似乎开始得更早。对于澳大利亚东南部，这种趋势迄今尚未得到证实。

目的：目的是确定第一个鸡蛋的产卵日期（FE；对于定居物种）或到达时间（对于迁徙物种）如何对降雨、气温和南方涛动指数 (SOI) 等气候因素做出反应，以及 FE 或到达时间是否显示出随时间变化的趋势。

方法：在南部沿海森林的一个地点记录了 18 个（1975-1984 和 2007-2014）繁殖季节（8 月至 1 月）内 13 种久坐鸟类的第一个卵（FE）的产卵日期。澳大利亚东部。这些季节还记录了七种迁徙物种的到达时间。

主要结果：线性混合模型显示，FE 与 4 月至 7 月的平均月 SOI (AJ SOI) 呈负相关，即繁殖季节之前的时期。当 AJ SOI 为阳性时产卵较早，而当其为阴性时产卵较晚。不同月份组合计算的 SOI 表明，1 月至 3 月期间的 SOI 对 FE 没有影响。尽管 1975 年至 2014 年期间温度升高，但 FE 与 4 月至 7 月的最低或最高温度无关，也与 4 月至 7 月的降雨量无关。混合线性模型表明，迁徙物种的到达日期在 1975 年至 2014 年之间变早，但不受 AJ SOI 或降雨的影响。

结论：迁徙物种每年提前 0.27 天到达。然而，这至少比与周期性 SOI 波动相关的久坐物种（6-7 天）的 FE 年度时间变化小一个数量级。SOI 的变化主导了群落的年度繁殖物候。

含义： AJ SOI 影响筑巢时间的机制可能与森林的初级生产力及其对昆虫丰度的影响有关。关于这些因素的数据很少。