Retired passenger battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to generate significant volumes of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), opening business opportunities for second life and recycling. In order to evaluate these, robust estimates of the future quantity and composition of LIBs are imperative. Here, we analyzed BEV fate in the Norwegian passenger vehicle fleet and estimated the corresponding battery capacity in retired vehicles from 2011 to 2030, using a stock-flow vehicle cohort model linked to analysis of the battery types and sizes contained in different BEVs. Results based on this combination of modeled and highly disaggregated technical data show that (i) the LIB energy capacity available for second use or recycling from end-of-life vehicles is expected to reach 0.6 GWh in 2025 and 2.1 GWh in 2030 (not accounting for any losses); (ii) most LIBs are currently contained within the weight segment 1500–1599 kg followed by 2000+ kg; (iii) highest sales currently exist for BEVs containing lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) batteries; and (iv) lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide batteries initially constitute the largest overall capacity in retired vehicles, but will later be surpassed by NMCs. The results demonstrate rapidly growing opportunities for businesses to make use of retired batteries and a necessity to adapt to changing battery types and sizes.

中文翻译：

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估计 2011 年至 2030 年挪威车队中电动乘用车电池的库存和流量

预计退役乘用电池电动汽车 (BEV) 将产生大量锂离子电池 (LIB)，为二次利用和回收打开商机。为了评估这些，必须对未来 LIB 的数量和组成进行稳健的估计。在这里，我们分析了挪威乘用车车队中 BEV 的命运，并使用与不同 BEV 中包含的电池类型和尺寸分析相关的库存流车辆队列模型估计了 2011 年至 2030 年退役车辆的相应电池容量。基于这种模型化和高度分类的技术数据组合的结果表明，(i) 可用于二次使用或从报废车辆回收的 LIB 能源容量预计将在 2025 年达到 0.6 GWh，在 2030 年达到 2.1 GWh（不计入）任何损失）；(ii) 大多数 LIB 目前包含在 1500-1599 kg 的重量段内，其次是 2000+ kg；(iii) 目前含镍锰钴酸锂 (NMC) 电池的 BEV 的销量最高；(iv) 锂镍钴铝氧化物电池最初构成退役车辆的最大总容量，但随后将被 NMC 超越。结果表明，企业利用退役电池的机会正在迅速增加，并且有必要适应不断变化的电池类型和尺寸。(iv) 锂镍钴铝氧化物电池最初构成退役车辆的最大总容量，但随后将被 NMC 超越。结果表明，企业利用退役电池的机会正在迅速增加，并且有必要适应不断变化的电池类型和尺寸。(iv) 锂镍钴铝氧化物电池最初构成退役车辆的最大总容量，但随后将被 NMC 超越。结果表明，企业利用退役电池的机会正在迅速增加，并且有必要适应不断变化的电池类型和尺寸。