Malignant Catarhal Fever (MCF), caused by a virus transmitted from asymptomatic wildebeest, is a lethal disease in cattle that threatens livestock-based livelihoods and food security in many areas of Africa. Many herd owners reduce transmission risks by moving cattle away from infection hot-spots, but this imposes considerable economic burdens on their households. The advent of a partially-protective vaccine for cattle opens up new options for disease prevention. In a study of pastoral households in northern Tanzania, we use stated preference choice modelling to investigate how pastoralists would likely respond to the availability of such a vaccine. We show a high probability of likely vaccine uptake by herd owners, declining at higher vaccine costs. Acceptance increases with more efficaceous vaccines, in situations where vaccinated cattle are ear-tagged, and where vaccine is delivered through private vets. Through analysis of Normalized Density Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, we show that the reported MCF incidence over 5 years is highest in areas where the mean and interannual varibility in vegetative greeness is relatively low and where herds sizes are smaller. Trends towards lower rainfall and greater landscape-level constraints on cattle movement suggest that MCF avoidance through traditional movement away from wildebeest will become more challenging and that demand for an MCF vaccine will likely increase.

恶性卡他哈热 (MCF) 由无症状角马传播的病毒引起，是牛的一种致命疾病，威胁着非洲许多地区以牲畜为基础的生计和粮食安全。许多牧民通过将牛从感染热点地区移走来降低传播风险，但这给他们的家庭带来了相当大的经济负担。对牛具有部分保护作用的疫苗的出现为疾病预防开辟了新的选择。在一项对坦桑尼亚北部牧民家庭的研究中，我们使用陈述性偏好选择模型来调查牧民可能对这种疫苗的可用性做出何种反应。我们展示了畜群主人很可能接种疫苗的可能性很高，但随着疫苗成本的提高而下降。接受度随着更有效的疫苗而增加，在接种过疫苗的牛被贴上耳标以及通过私人兽医提供疫苗的情况下。通过对归一化密度植被指数 (NDVI) 数据的分析，我们表明，在植被绿度的平均和年际变化相对较低且畜群规模较小的地区，报告的 5 年内 MCF 发生率最高。降雨量减少和对牛移动的更大景观水平限制的趋势表明，通过远离角马的传统移动来避免 MCF 将变得更具挑战性，对 MCF 疫苗的需求可能会增加。我们表明，在植被绿度的平均和年际变化相对较低且畜群规模较小的地区，报告的 5 年内 MCF 发生率最高。降雨量减少和对牛移动的更大景观水平限制的趋势表明，通过远离角马的传统移动来避免 MCF 将变得更具挑战性，对 MCF 疫苗的需求可能会增加。我们表明，在植被绿度的平均和年际变化相对较低且畜群规模较小的地区，报告的 5 年内 MCF 发生率最高。降雨量减少和对牛移动的更大景观水平限制的趋势表明，通过远离角马的传统移动来避免 MCF 将变得更具挑战性，对 MCF 疫苗的需求可能会增加。