ABSTRACT

A climate-positive COVID-19 recovery can accelerate the energy transition away from fossil fuels. Yet, current assessments of recovery stimulus programs suggest that the most fossil fuel producers are more likely to take on a ‘dirty’ recovery path out of the pandemic than a ‘green’ one. Such a path will postpone climate action and entrench fossil fuel dependence. To change course, fossil fuel producers have to get on board of a 'green recovery'. For this, cooperative international efforts mobilizing both fossil fuel consumers and producers need to promote ‘just transition’ policies that increase support for a green shift among fossil fuel companies and producing countries, including fossil fuel exporters. In turn, fossil fuel producers should leverage the opportunity of stimulus packages to reduce their fossil fuel production dependence and help accelerate an energy transition through supply-side measures. A combination of ‘green’ investments and ‘just’ transition reforms could help enroll fossil fuel producers into a climate-friendly post-COVID recovery.

Key policy insights

• Fossil fuel producers have mostly promoted ‘dirty’ rather than ‘green’ recovery paths from the COVID-19 pandemic

• A green recovery agenda requires a ‘just’ transition component to entice and support fossil fuel producers

• Both demand and supply-side strategies are required to advance a ‘just transition’ agenda throughout the post-COVID 19 recovery

• The post-COVID-19 transition requires energy policies responding to the constraints of consumer and producer countries to address climate and equity challenges

中文翻译：

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化石燃料、气候变化和 COVID-19 危机：大流行后公正和绿色复苏的途径

摘要

对气候有利的 COVID-19 复苏可以加速能源从化石燃料的转型。然而，目前对复苏刺激计划的评估表明，大多数化石燃料生产商更有可能走上“肮脏”的经济复苏之路，而不是“绿色”之路。这样的道路将推迟气候行动并加深对化石燃料的依赖。为了改变方向，化石燃料生产商必须加入“绿色复苏”。为此，动员化石燃料消费者和生产者的国际合作努力需要促进“公正转型”政策，以增加对化石燃料公司和生产国（包括化石燃料出口国）绿色转变的支持。反过来，化石燃料生产商应利用一揽子刺激计划的机会，减少对化石燃料生产的依赖，并通过供应方措施帮助加速能源转型。“绿色”投资和“公正”转型改革相结合，可以帮助化石燃料生产商参与到对气候友好的后 COVID 复苏中。

关键政策见解

• 化石燃料生产商大多提倡从 COVID-19 大流行中“肮脏”而不是“绿色”的恢复路径

• 绿色复苏议程需要一个“公正”的过渡组成部分来吸引和支持化石燃料生产商

• 在整个后 COVID 19 复苏过程中，需要需求方和供应方战略来推进“公正过渡”议程

• COVID-19 后的过渡需要能源政策应对消费国和生产国的限制，以应对气候和公平挑战