This paper uses the exogenous shock generated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the relative government response as an informative case in investigating the factors able to affect policy efficacy. Lockdown measures have been widely adopted to limit the diffusion of COVID-19, indirectly supporting the capacity of the hospital system to face the pandemic. Lockdown obliges people to change their social behaviour significantly, and consequently is a matter of serious concern amongst the population. For this reason, how people react to lockdown is of the utmost importance, since failure to observe it properly will be of little benefit in reducing contagion. In this rationale, factors correlated with individuals’ behaviour could affect the efficacy of such measures. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether differences in institutional quality and social capital are correlated with the efficacy of lockdown measures, taking the Italian provinces as a case study. Using a quantitative analysis employing F-GLS estimators, our results suggest that both local social capital and institutional quality have affected the efficiency of lockdown measures in Italian provinces. In general terms these factors contribute to forming the set of incentives able to promote individual behaviour that is in closer compliance with government choices. In this perspective, institutional quality and social capital can be considered factors able to influence the efficacy of policies.

本文使用 COVID-19 大流行产生的外生冲击和政府的相关反应作为调查能够影响政策效力的因素的信息案例。封锁措施已被广泛采用以限制 COVID-19 的传播，间接支持医院系统应对大流行的能力。封锁迫使人们显着改变他们的社会行为，因此成为人们严重关注的问题。出于这个原因，人们对封锁的反应是最重要的，因为不能正确观察它对减少传染没有多大好处。在这个理由中，与个人行为相关的因素可能会影响这些措施的有效性。本文的目的是以意大利各省为例，调查制度质量和社会资本的差异是否与封锁措施的效果相关。通过采用 F-GLS 估计量的定量分析，我们的结果表明，当地社会资本和制度质量都影响了意大利各省封锁措施的效率。一般而言，这些因素有助于形成一套能够促进个人行为更符合政府选择的激励措施。从这个角度来看，制度质量和社会资本可以被视为能够影响政策效力的因素。通过采用 F-GLS 估计量的定量分析，我们的结果表明，当地社会资本和制度质量都影响了意大利各省封锁措施的效率。一般而言，这些因素有助于形成一套能够促进个人行为更符合政府选择的激励措施。从这个角度来看，制度质量和社会资本可以被视为能够影响政策效力的因素。通过采用 F-GLS 估计量的定量分析，我们的结果表明，当地社会资本和制度质量都影响了意大利各省封锁措施的效率。一般而言，这些因素有助于形成一套能够促进个人行为更符合政府选择的激励措施。从这个角度来看，制度质量和社会资本可以被视为能够影响政策效力的因素。