Criminal activity may influence the decisions of existing property owners or prospective investors to invest in a property, given the potential elevated expenses and increased uncertainty that often accompany crime. This study investigates the relationship between crime and private investment at nearby micro-places using location-specific crime incident and building permit data from 2008 to 2018 in the cities of Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, Philadelphia, San Antonio and Seattle. Data were aggregated to the blockface-level to examine how changes in investment on a blockface are influenced by changes in crime on that blockface and adjacent blockfaces in the subsequent year. Results indicate that an increase in total crime on a blockface was associated with a significant decrease in building permit activity the following year in all six cities, but the relationship is less strong when aggregating crime from adjacent blockfaces. When looking at spillover effects, higher crime on adjacent blockfaces was significantly associated with lower levels of investment beyond the effect of the crime trend on that blockface in Los Angeles and San Antonio. Though the relationship between adjacent blockface crime and investment was negative across the other four cities, it was not statistically significant. Taken together, these findings suggest that effective targeted crime prevention policies may have the added benefit of spurring local economic investment and that the impact of crime is very localised.

犯罪活动可能会影响现有财产所有者或潜在投资者投资财产的决定，因为犯罪活动往往伴随着潜在的高昂费用和不确定性增加。本研究使用 2008 年至 2018 年芝加哥、洛杉矶、纽约、费城、圣安东尼奥和西雅图等城市的特定地点犯罪事件和建筑许可数据，调查了附近微型场所的犯罪与私人投资之间的关系。数据被汇总到区块层面，以检查区块投资的变化如何受到该区块和相邻区块在随后一年的犯罪变化的影响。结果表明，在所有六个城市，街区总犯罪率的增加与第二年建筑许可活动的显着减少有关，但是当从相邻的街区聚集犯罪时，这种关系就不那么强烈了。在考虑溢出效应时，除了犯罪趋势对洛杉矶和圣安东尼奥街区的影响之外，相邻街区的犯罪率较高与投资水平较低显着相关。尽管其他四个城市的相邻街区犯罪与投资之间的关系为负，但在统计上并不显着。综上所述，这些调查结果表明，有效的有针对性的犯罪预防政策可能具有刺激当地经济投资的额外好处，并且犯罪的影响非常局部化。除了犯罪趋势对洛杉矶和圣安东尼奥街区的影响之外，相邻街区的犯罪率较高与投资水平较低显着相关。尽管其他四个城市的相邻街区犯罪与投资之间的关系为负，但在统计上并不显着。综上所述，这些调查结果表明，有效的有针对性的犯罪预防政策可能具有刺激当地经济投资的额外好处，并且犯罪的影响非常局部化。除了犯罪趋势对洛杉矶和圣安东尼奥街区的影响之外，相邻街区的犯罪率较高与投资水平较低显着相关。尽管其他四个城市的相邻街区犯罪与投资之间的关系为负，但在统计上并不显着。综上所述，这些调查结果表明，有效的有针对性的犯罪预防政策可能具有刺激当地经济投资的额外好处，并且犯罪的影响非常局部化。