Psychotic experiences predict adverse health outcomes, particularly if they are persistent. However, it is unclear what distinguishes persistent from transient psychotic experiences.

In a large population-based cohort, we aimed to (a) describe the course of hallucinatory experiences from childhood to adolescence, (b) compare characteristics of youth with persistent and remittent hallucinatory experiences, and (c) examine prediction models for persistence.

Youth were assessed longitudinally for hallucinatory experiences at mean ages of 10 and 14 years (n = 3473). Multi-informant-rated mental health problems, stressful life events, self-esteem, non-verbal IQ and parental psychopathology were examined in relation to absent, persistent, remittent and incident hallucinatory experiences. We evaluated two prediction models for persistence with logistic regression and assessed discrimination using the area under the curve (AUC).

The persistence rate of hallucinatory experiences was 20.5%. Adolescents with persistent hallucinatory experiences had higher baseline levels of hallucinatory experiences, emotional and behavioural problems, as well as lower self-esteem and non-verbal IQ scores than youth with remittent hallucinatory experiences. Although the prediction model for persistence versus absence of hallucinatory experiences demonstrated excellent discriminatory power (AUC-corrected = 0.80), the prediction model for persistence versus remittance demonstrated poor accuracy (AUC-corrected = 0.61).

This study provides support for the dynamic expression of childhood hallucinatory experiences and suggests increased neurodevelopmental vulnerability in youth with persistent hallucinatory experiences. Despite the inclusion of a wide array of psychosocial parameters, a prediction model discriminated poorly between youth with persistent versus remittent hallucinatory experiences, confirming that persistent hallucinatory experiences are a complex multifactorial trait.

精神病经历预示着不良的健康结果，特别是如果它们持续存在的话。然而，目前尚不清楚持续性精神病经历与短暂精神病经历的区别。

在一个以人群为基础的大型队列中，我们旨在 (a) 描述从童年到青春期的幻觉经历过程，(b) 比较青年的特征与持续性和缓解性幻觉体验，以及 (c) 检查持续性的预测模型。

在平均年龄为 10 岁和 14 岁（ n = 3473）时，对青少年的幻觉体验进行了纵向评估。多信息人评定的心理健康问题、压力性生活事件、自尊、非语言智商和父母精神病理学与缺席、持续、缓解和偶发幻觉经历有关。我们使用逻辑回归评估了两个预测模型的持久性，并使用曲线下面积 (AUC) 评估了歧视。

幻觉体验的持续率为20.5%。具有持续性幻觉体验的青少年的幻觉体验、情绪和行为问题的基线水平更高，自尊和非语言智商得分低于有缓解性幻觉体验的青少年。尽管持续性与无幻觉体验的预测模型显示出极好的区分能力（AUC -校正= 0.80），但持续性与汇款的预测模型显示出较差的准确性（AUC -校正= 0.61）。

这项研究为儿童幻觉体验的动态表达提供了支持，并表明具有持续幻觉体验的青少年神经发育脆弱性增加。尽管包含了广泛的社会心理参数，但预测模型在具有持续性幻觉体验和暂时性幻觉体验的青年之间的区分度很差，这证实了持续性幻觉体验是一种复杂的多因素特征。