Abstract

Inflation expectations of firms affect their micro-decision-making behaviors and therefore impact the macro-economy. Thus, a deep understanding of how firms form inflation expectations benefits the achievement of central bank’s policy objectives on macro-economic sustainability and development. In this paper, we focus on the inflation expectations of firms from surveys. Specifically, the Naïve Expectation, Adaptive Expectation, Rational Expectation, VAR, and Heterogeneous Static Expectation formation models are adopted to test the models being used by firms to form inflation expectations. Empirically, this paper reveals the heterogeneity between the formation mechanisms of households and firms. Then, empirical results reject the rational expectation hypothesis of firms’ inflation expectations, which means that they are not perfectly rational. Finally, we find that the inflation perception is a non-negligible factor in forming firms’ inflation expectations. Therefore, central banks’ monetary policies that aiming to formulate firms’ inflation perceptions can be a useful tool in regulating their inflation expectations, which are expected to benefit the stability of the macro-economy.

摘要

企业的通胀预期会影响其微观决策行为，从而影响宏观经济。因此，深入了解企业如何形成通胀预期有助于实现中央银行关于宏观经济可持续性和发展的政策目标。在本文中，我们关注调查中企业的通胀预期。具体而言，采用朴素预期、自适应预期、理性预期、VAR 和异构静态预期形成模型来测试公司用来形成通胀预期的模型。本文从经验上揭示了家庭和企业形成机制的异质性。然后，实证结果拒绝了企业通胀预期的理性预期假设，这意味着它们不是完全理性的。最后，我们发现通胀感知是形成企业通胀预期的一个不可忽视的因素。因此，旨在形成企业通胀认知的央行货币政策可以成为调节其通胀预期的有用工具，这有望有利于宏观经济的稳定。