Although waiting times are inherently uncertain in public transport networks, previous research has primarily studied route choice behaviour under risk. Since understanding such behaviour is important to correctly model network flows and gain better understanding of traveller satisfaction, we propose a method to assess travellers’ route choice behaviour under natural ambiguity. Specifically, we devise a realistic route choice situation whereby travellers’ attitudes and perceptions towards waiting time uncertainty as well as the effects of situational contexts thereon can be quantified in terms of a certainty equivalent. The choice situation is contextualised in a stated preferences experiment to analyse the premium travellers in the Dutch railways are willing to pay for certainty in waiting time. Results indicate a significantly improved model fit and predictive value when accounting for waiting time uncertainty with travellers, on average, willing to trade-off more than 7 minutes of in-vehicle time to have certainty in their waiting time. Minor non-linear effects of elapsed waiting time and anticipated delays on the value of certainty are also found and heterogeneity analysis indicates that younger travellers tend to seek more certainty. The proposed method provides snapshots of travellers’ behaviour under uncertainties in a real-world public transport system and can as such be used to improve transportation models, provide more tailored travel advice, and be used to test the efficacy of different policies.

尽管公共交通网络中的等待时间本质上是不确定的，但之前的研究主要研究了风险下的路线选择行为。由于了解此类行为对于正确建模网络流量和更好地了解旅行者的满意度很重要，因此我们提出了一种在自然歧义下评估旅行者路线选择行为的方法。具体来说，我们设计了一个现实的路线选择情况，旅行者对等待时间不确定性的态度和看法以及情境背景对其的影响可以根据确定性等价物进行量化。选择情况在一个陈述的偏好实验中被情境化，以分析荷兰铁路中的优质旅客愿意为等待时间的确定性付费。结果表明，当考虑到平均等待时间不确定性时，模型拟合和预测值得到显着改善，旅客愿意在超过 7 分钟的车内时间来确定他们的等待时间。还发现了等待时间和预期延迟对确定性价值的微小非线性影响，异质性分析表明年轻旅行者倾向于寻求更多确定性。所提出的方法在现实世界的公共交通系统中提供了不确定性下旅行者行为的快照，因此可用于改进交通模型，提供更量身定制的旅行建议，并用于测试不同政策的有效性。愿意牺牲超过 7 分钟的车内时间来确定他们的等待时间。还发现了等待时间和预期延迟对确定性价值的微小非线性影响，异质性分析表明年轻旅行者倾向于寻求更多确定性。所提出的方法在现实世界的公共交通系统中提供了不确定性下旅行者行为的快照，因此可用于改进交通模型，提供更量身定制的旅行建议，并用于测试不同政策的有效性。愿意牺牲超过 7 分钟的车内时间来确定他们的等待时间。还发现了等待时间和预期延迟对确定性价值的微小非线性影响，异质性分析表明年轻旅行者倾向于寻求更多确定性。所提出的方法在现实世界的公共交通系统中提供了不确定性下旅行者行为的快照，因此可用于改进交通模型，提供更量身定制的旅行建议，并用于测试不同政策的有效性。