Acoustic disturbance is a growing conservation concern for wildlife populations because it can elicit physiological and behavioral responses that can have cascading impacts on population dynamics. State-dependent behavioral and life history models implemented via Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) provide a natural framework for quantifying biologically meaningful population changes resulting from disturbance by linking environment, physiology, and metrics of fitness. We developed an SDP model using the endangered western gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) as a case study because they experience acoustic disturbance on their summer foraging grounds. We modeled the behavior and physiological dynamics of pregnant females as they arrived on the feeding grounds and predicted the probability of female and offspring survival, with and without acoustic disturbance and in the presence/absence of high prey availability. Upon arrival in mid-May, pregnant females initially exhibited relatively random behavior before they transitioned to intensive feeding that resulted in continual fat mass gain until departure. This shift in behavior co-occurred with a change in spatial distribution; early in the season, whales were more equally distributed among foraging areas with moderate to high energy availability, whereas by mid-July whales transitioned to predominate use of the location that had the highest energy availability. Exclusion from energy-rich offshore areas led to reproductive failure and in extreme cases, mortality of adult females that had lasting impacts on population dynamics. Simulated disturbances in nearshore foraging areas had little to no impact on female survival or reproductive success at the population level. At the individual level, the impact of disturbance was unequally distributed across females of different lengths, both with respect to the number of times an individual was disturbed and the impact of disturbance on vital rates. Our results highlight the susceptibility of large capital breeders to reductions in prey availability, and indicate that who, where, and when individuals are disturbed are likely to be important considerations when assessing the impacts of acoustic activities. This model provides a framework to inform planned acoustic disturbances and assess the effectiveness of mitigation strategies for large capital breeders.

中文翻译：

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预测声学干扰的种群后果，并应用于濒临灭绝的灰鲸种群

声学干扰是野生动物种群日益受到关注的保护问题，因为它会引发生理和行为反应，从而对种群动态产生级联影响。通过随机动态规划 (SDP) 实现的状态相关行为和生活史模型提供了一个自然框架，通过将环境、生理学和健康指标联系起来，量化由干扰引起的具有生物学意义的人口变化。我们使用濒临灭绝的西部灰鲸（Eschrichtius robustus) 作为案例研究，因为它们在夏季觅食地会遇到声学干扰。我们模拟了怀孕雌性到达觅食地时的行为和生理动态，并预测了雌性和后代存活的概率，无论有无声学干扰，以及存在/不存在高猎物可用性。5 月中旬到达后，怀孕的雌性最初表现出相对随机的行为，然后过渡到强化喂养，导致脂肪量持续增加，直到离开。这种行为转变与空间分布的变化同时发生。在季节初期，鲸鱼更均匀地分布在具有中等到高能量可用性的觅食区，而到了 7 月中旬，鲸鱼开始主要使用能源供应最多的地方。排除在能源丰富的近海地区会导致生殖失败，在极端情况下，成年女性的死亡率会对人口动态产生持久影响。近岸觅食区的模拟干扰对种群水平的雌性生存或繁殖成功几乎没有影响。在个体层面，干扰的影响在不同长度的女性中分布不均，无论是个体受到干扰的次数还是干扰对生命率的影响。我们的结果强调了大型资本饲养者对猎物可用性减少的敏感性，并表明谁、在哪里、在评估声学活动的影响时，个人何时受到干扰可能是重要的考虑因素。该模型提供了一个框架，可以为计划中的声干扰提供信息，并评估大型资本培育者缓解策略的有效性。