A Monte Carlo model designed for fixed-wing aircraft takeoff performance uncertainty quantification is benchmarked. The uses of an efficient takeoff simulator of this type range from rapid design variable and constraint sensitivity studies and large-scale conceptual level analyses to operational performance planning and real-time anomaly detection. The accuracy of the model is assessed against high-resolution flight-test data obtained through a campaign consisting of eight takeoffs flown with a specially instrumented commuter category transport aircraft: a BAe Jetstream Series 3100 twin turboprop. On all but one of the takeoffs, a close agreement is seen in terms of the takeoff distance, as predicted vs as observed, at the point of passing a 35 ft screen height; for the outlier, evidence of a sudden change in wind speed is presented as the probable cause of the discrepancy. Such studies are subject to many other sources of error and uncertainty, which are inherent in both flight-test data analysis and simulation, stemming from the highly dynamic and complex nature of this phase of the flight. The analysis presented also proposes to be a template for dealing with these issues, in a way that is applicable to other benchmarking studies.

为固定翼飞机起飞性能不确定性量化设计的蒙特卡罗模型进行了基准测试。此类高效起飞模拟器的用途范围从快速设计变量和约束敏感性研究和大规模概念级分析到运行性能规划和实时异常检测。该模型的准确性是根据高分辨率飞行测试数据进行评估的，该数据是通过使用特殊仪表的通勤类运输机（BAe Jetstream 系列 3100 双涡轮螺旋桨飞机）进行的八次起飞而获得的。在除一次起飞之外的所有起飞中，在通过 35 英尺屏幕高度时的起飞距离（如预测值与观察值）接近一致；对于异常值，风速突然变化的证据被认为是造成差异的可能原因。此类研究会受到许多其他误差和不确定性来源的影响，这些来源是飞行测试数据分析和模拟中固有的，源于飞行阶段的高度动态和复杂性。所提供的分析还建议作为处理这些问题的模板，以适用于其他基准研究的方式。