This paper describes a novel scheme for assessing the ability of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to forecast the horizontal spatial structure of local extremes, for example, when comparing accumulated precipitation to a corresponding observed field. Both local maxima and minima are considered. The quality is measured by a score function between 0 and 1, which could potentially be adjusted for specific applications of NWP. The effect of neighbourhood size is included in order to consider the impact of resolvable scales. The scheme complements existing spatial verification schemes with added value and has a potential to be used both in operational verification and as a tool for revealing model deficiencies linked to individual forecast cases. The properties of the scheme are illustrated from various idealized cases. Verification results are presented for a real convective precipitation case and for a frontal precipitation case over several days. The scheme is discussed in the context of operational conditions, using synthetic fields of forecasts and analyses based on statistics of an operational NWP model at the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) and related observed data from a 5-year period. Different future options are outlined, including the potential application of the scheme for ensemble prediction systems.

中文翻译：

---

数值天气预报中极值空间结构验证方案：以降水为例

本文描述了一种评估数值天气预报 (NWP) 模型预测局部极端水平空间结构能力的新方案，例如，在将累积降水与相应的观测场进行比较时。考虑局部最大值和最小值。质量是通过介于 0 和 1 之间的评分函数来衡量的，该函数可能会针对 NWP 的特定应用进行调整。包括邻域大小的影响是为了考虑可解析尺度的影响。该方案以附加值补充了现有的空间验证方案，并有可能用于操作验证和作为揭示与个别预测案例相关的模型缺陷的工具。从各种理想化的情况说明了该方案的特性。验证结果针对真实对流降水情况和几天内的锋面降水情况提供。该计划是在运行条件的背景下讨论的，使用基于丹麦气象研究所 (DMI) 的运行 NWP 模型的统计数据和 5 年期间的相关观测数据的预测和分析的综合领域。概述了不同的未来选择，包括该方案在集合预测系统中的潜在应用。使用基于丹麦气象研究所 (DMI) 的业务 NWP 模型统计数据和 5 年期间的相关观测数据的预测和分析的综合领域。概述了不同的未来选择，包括该方案在集合预测系统中的潜在应用。使用基于丹麦气象研究所 (DMI) 的业务 NWP 模型统计数据和 5 年期间的相关观测数据的预测和分析的综合领域。概述了不同的未来选择，包括该方案在集合预测系统中的潜在应用。