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Extreme wind projections over Europe from the Euro-CORDEX regional climate models
Weather and Climate Extremes ( IF 8 ) Pub Date : 2021-08-07 , DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100363
Stephen Outten 1 , Stefan Sobolowski 2
Affiliation  

Extreme weather events represent one of the most visible and immediate hazards to society. Many of these types of phenomena are projected to increase in intensity, duration or frequency as the climate warms. Of these extreme winds are among the most damaging historically over Europe yet assessments of their future changes remain fraught with uncertainty. This uncertainty arises due to both the rare nature of extreme wind events and the fact that most model are unable to faithfully represent them. Here we take advantage of a 15 member ensemble of high resolution Euro-CORDEX simulations (12 km) and investigate projected changes in extreme winds using a peaks-over-threshold approach. Additionally we show that - despite lingering model deficiencies and inadequate observational coverage - there is clear added value of the higher resolution simulations over coarser resolution counterparts. Further, the spatial heterogeneity and highly localized nature is well captured. Effects such as orographic interactions, drag due to urban areas, and even individual storm tracks over the oceans are clearly visible. As such future changes also exhibit strong spatial heterogeneity. These results emphasise the need for careful case-by-case treatment of extreme wind analysis, especially when done in a climate adaptation or decision making context. However, for more general assessments the picture is more clear with increases in the return period (i.e. more frequent) extreme episodes projected for Northern, Central and Southern Europe throughout the 21st century. While models continue to improve in their representation of extreme winds, improved observational coverage is desperately needed to obtain more robust assessments of extreme winds over Europe and elsewhere.



中文翻译:

Euro-CORDEX 区域气候模型对欧洲的极端风力预测

极端天气事件是对社会最明显和最直接的危害之一。随着气候变暖,预计许多此类现象的强度、持续时间或频率都会增加。这些极端风是欧洲历史上最具破坏性的风之一,但对其未来变化的评估仍然充满不确定性。这种不确定性的产生是由于极端风事件的罕见性质以及大多数模型无法忠实地代表它们的事实。在这里,我们利用 15 个成员的高分辨率 Euro-CORDEX 模拟集合(12 公里)并使用峰值超过阈值的方法调查极端风的预测变化。此外,我们表明 - 尽管存在挥之不去的模型缺陷和观测覆盖范围不足 - 与较粗分辨率的对应物相比,更高分辨率的模拟具有明显的附加价值。此外,很好地捕捉了空间异质性和高度局部化的性质。地形相互作用、城市地区的阻力,甚至海洋上的单个风暴轨迹等影响都清晰可见。因此,未来的变化也表现出强烈的空间异质性。这些结果强调了对极端风分析进行仔细逐案处理的必要性,尤其是在气候适应或决策制定环境中进行时。然而,对于更一般的评估,随着回报期的增加(即 更频繁)预测整个 21 世纪北欧、中欧和南欧的极端事件。虽然模型在极端风的表现方面不断改进,但迫切需要改进的观测覆盖范围,以获得对欧洲和其他地方的极端风的更可靠的评估。

更新日期:2021-08-09
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