The Texas High Plains (THP) is a major cotton-producing region in the United States. Sustaining cotton production under declining groundwater availability in the underlying Ogallala Aquifer and changing climate remains a key challenge for stakeholders in this region. The objectives of this study were to assess climate change impacts on cotton yield and irrigation water use, and evaluate six ideotypes for adaptation. In this study, we used the DSSAT-CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton model for simulating cotton production under 18 projected future climate scenarios and with six potential adaptation ideotypes at Bushland, Halfway and Lamesa in the northern, central, and southern parts of the THP region, respectively. Seed cotton yield and irrigation water use between baseline (1976–2005) and future periods (mid-century:2036–2065 and late-century: 2066–2095) were compared. The irrigated seed cotton yield is expected to increase by 12–21 % at cooler northern sites, and decrease by 2% at the warmer southern site, in the mid-century compared to the baseline. For the same period, seasonal irrigation water use is expected to increase by 6–11 % and dryland seed cotton yield is expected to change by +6 % to −11 % across the locations. The increases in irrigated seed cotton yield were attributed to increased vegetative growth under elevated CO₂, while the decline in dryland seed cotton yield was due to poor boll retention at high growing season temperatures. Six potential climate change adaptive ideotypes with greater drought and heat tolerances, higher yield potential, and longer maturity were designed and compared to the reference cultivar. For irrigated conditions, increasing area of full leaf and enhancing partitioning of assimilates to reproductive growth (high yield potential) were preferred, because these characteristics increased seed cotton yield substantially (by 3–9 %) with a marginal change in irrigation water use (by −1 to 3 %). For dryland production, a long maturity ideotype with longer boll filling duration was the most effective ideotype with a substantial increase in seed cotton yield by 11–45 %. The results from this study will be useful to THP cotton producers and water managers in making appropriate decisions for adapting cotton production to projected changes in future climate and groundwater availability.

德克萨斯高原 (THP) 是美国的主要棉花产区。在潜在的奥加拉拉含水层地下水供应下降和气候变化的情况下维持棉花生产仍然是该地区利益相关者面临的主要挑战。本研究的目的是评估气候变化对棉花产量和灌溉用水的影响，并评估六种适应模式。在这项研究中，我们使用 DSSAT-CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton 模型模拟了 18 种未来气候情景下的棉花生产，并在 THP 地区北部、中部和南部的 Bushland、Halfway 和 Lamesa 具有六种潜在的适应模式， 分别。基线（1976-2005）和未来时期（世纪中叶：2036-2065 和世纪末：2066-2095）进行了比较。与基线相比，到本世纪中叶，较冷的北部地区的灌溉籽棉产量预计将增加 12-21%，而在较温暖的南部地区则下降 2%。同期，预计季节性灌溉用水量将增加 6-11%，旱地籽棉产量预计将在各个地点变化 +6% 至 -11%。灌溉籽棉产量的增加归因于高二氧化碳下营养生长的增加 预计季节性灌溉用水量将增加 6-11%，旱地籽棉产量预计将在各个地点变化 +6% 至 -11%。灌溉籽棉产量的增加归因于高二氧化碳下营养生长的增加 预计季节性灌溉用水量将增加 6-11%，旱地籽棉产量预计将在各个地点变化 +6% 至 -11%。灌溉籽棉产量的增加归因于二氧化碳升高下营养生长的增加₂，而旱地籽棉产量的下降是由于在高生长季节温度下棉铃保持力差。设计了六种具有更高的耐旱性和耐热性、更高的产量潜力和更长的成熟度的潜在气候变化适应性意识形态，并与参考品种进行了比较。对于灌溉条件，首选增加全叶面积和增强同化物分配以促进生殖生长（高产潜力），因为这些特性显着增加了籽棉产量（增加 3-9%），而灌溉用水量（通过-1 至 3 %)。对于旱地生产，具有较长棉铃灌浆期的长成熟理想型是最有效的理想型，籽棉产量可显着增加 11-45%。