Despite seven decades of development of the European Union project, on 23 June 2016, the United Kingdom, Europe and the rest of the world were surprised when the Leave campaign won the Brexit referendum, offering an extraordinary case study for researchers. We spatially disaggregate the vote share data, which allows us to explore where anti-European sentiment took root in the UK and why. In this paper, a spatial dependence model is applied to clarify and quantify the relevance of the different dimensions—demographic, cultural/educational and economic—that play a role in explaining the rise of support for the Leave campaign. The analysis is conducted at the local level, using local authorities (LAs) as the spatial unit of analysis due to the combination of official datasets with newly generated data in the context of an EU H2020 project. A new indicator capturing the affluence of each local area relative to its close neighbours is proposed and included in the model. In general, we observe that most of the main conclusions obtained by large regions or at the national level also hold at the local scale. However, it is particularly interesting that inequalities by LAs are clearly significant, indicating a marked influence on voters' decisions that have thus far been unaccounted for. This result provides further support for the existence of, to use Andrés Rodriguez-Pose's terminology, an even more intense “revenge of the places that do not matter” at the local scale.

中文翻译：

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“另一边草更绿”：脱欧公投结果与地方空间不平等的关系

尽管欧盟项目已经发展了七个十年，但在 2016 年 6 月 23 日，英国、欧洲和世界其他地区都对英国脱欧运动赢得了英国脱欧公投感到惊讶，为研究人员提供了一个非凡的案例研究。我们在空间上分解了投票份额数据，这使我们能够探索反欧洲情绪在英国的根源以及原因。在本文中，应用空间依赖模型来阐明和量化不同维度（人口、文化/教育和经济）的相关性，这些维度在解释对休假运动的支持增加方面发挥了作用。由于官方数据集与欧盟 H2020 项目背景下新生成的数据相结合，分析是在地方层面进行的，使用地方当局 (LA) 作为分析的空间单位。提出了一个新的指标来衡量每个当地区域相对于其近邻的富裕程度，并将其包含在模型中。总的来说，我们观察到，大区域或国家层面获得的大部分主要结论在地方尺度上也成立。然而，特别有趣的是 LA 的不平等显然是显着的，这表明对选民的决定产生了显着影响，而这些影响迄今尚未得到解释。这一结果进一步支持，用安德烈斯·罗德里格斯-波塞（Andrés Rodriguez-Pose）的术语来说，在当地范围内，“对无关紧要的地方的报复”更加激烈。我们观察到，大区域或国家层面获得的大部分主要结论也适用于地方层面。然而，特别有趣的是 LA 的不平等显然是显着的，这表明对选民的决定产生了显着影响，而这些影响迄今尚未得到解释。这一结果进一步支持，用安德烈斯·罗德里格斯-波塞（Andrés Rodriguez-Pose）的术语来说，在当地范围内，“对无关紧要的地方的报复”更加激烈。我们观察到，大区域或国家层面获得的大部分主要结论也适用于地方层面。然而，特别有趣的是 LA 的不平等显然是显着的，这表明对选民的决定产生了显着影响，而这些影响迄今尚未得到解释。这一结果进一步支持，用安德烈斯·罗德里格斯-波塞（Andrés Rodriguez-Pose）的术语来说，在当地范围内，“对无关紧要的地方的报复”更加激烈。