Abstract

Over the past few decades, the international trading system has become strongly organised around global value chains. Theoretical and empirical research show that there are numerous benefits associated with participation in global value chains. However, empirical findings on the importance of backward and forward linkages into global value chains are still limited. This paper makes a contribution to the global value chains literature by exploring the relationship between different measures of global value chains participation and export growth in South Africa. Empirical evidence on the relationship is obtained through the use of dynamic autoregressive-distributed lag simulations on data covering the period 1990-2019. Findings indicate the following; the backward linkages (foreign value added) and domestic value added in exports both have significant long-run increasing effects on export growth in South Africa. Indirect value added (forward linkages) has significant short-run and long-run increasing impact on export growth in the country.

摘要

在过去的几十年里，国际贸易体系已经围绕全球价值链紧密地组织起来。理论和实证研究表明，参与全球价值链有很多好处。然而，关于后向和前向联系对全球价值链的重要性的实证研究结果仍然有限。本文通过探讨全球价值链参与的不同衡量标准与南非出口增长之间的关系，为全球价值链文献做出了贡献。通过对 1990 年至 2019 年期间的数据使用动态自回归分布滞后模拟，获得了关于这种关系的经验证据。调查结果表明：出口的后向联系（外国增加值）和国内增加值都对南非的出口增长具有显着的长期增长影响。间接增加值（前向联系）对该国出口增长具有显着的短期和长期增长影响。