ABSTRACT

While the rapid proliferation of the Industry 4.0 concept suggests that it brings about major economic change, the concept lacks a socio-economic foundation of change. In this context, the paper raises three questions: First, how sudden does the change brought about by Industry 4.0 occur, and, second, does it make a difference if it is conceived as sudden or not? Using a model of long waves of economic development and the concept of general purpose-technologies it is argued that much of the change brought about by Industry 4.0 is not of a sudden nature but largely represents the roll-out of the prevailing techno-economic paradigm, and that digitalization and artificial intelligence have the potential to trigger of a next long wave. The third question asks for possible implications of the long-wave perspective for adapting to an upcoming paradigm at the regional level. A major conclusion is that policy measures ought to reach beyond traditional innovation and technology-related policies and be implemented in the appropriate phase of a long wave.

摘要

虽然工业 4.0 概念的迅速普及表明它带来了重大的经济变革，但该概念缺乏变革的社会经济基础。在此背景下，论文提出了三个问题：第一，工业4.0带来的变化发生的突然性如何，第二，如果将其设想为突然发生，会产生什么影响吗？或不？使用经济发展的长波模型和通用技术的概念，有人认为工业 4.0 带来的大部分变化不是突然的，而是在很大程度上代表了流行的技术经济范式的推出，而且数字化和人工智能有可能引发下一波长波。第三个问题询问长波视角对适应即将到来的区域层面范式的可能影响。一个主要结论是，政策措施应该超越传统的创新和技术相关政策，并在长波的适当阶段实施。