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Bouncecasting: a seminar gaming approach to foresight
Foresight Pub Date : 2021-08-06 , DOI: 10.1108/fs-02-2021-0060
James P. Kahan 1
Affiliation  

Purpose

This paper aims to present “Bouncecasting,” a seminar gaming foresight approach useful for examining “wicked problems” where the path to the future is uncertain and malleable and where major stakeholders may have different preferences for different futures. The approach gets its name because it goes back and forth between forecasting and backcasting, provides for give and take among different groups of stakeholders and creates and compares multiple scenarios depicting plausible futures.

Design/methodology/approach

After defining Bouncecasting, presenting its main features and providing a recommended way of conducting Bouncecasting studies, the approach is illustrated by four Bouncecasting projects conducted between 1998 and 2004.

Findings

The four projects taken together show that Bouncecasting can be used to address a range of wicked problems in a practical way. The projects considered in sequence show the evolution of the method.

Originality/value

Bouncecasting is a way of doing foresight that examines in an integrated way multiple characteristics of a policy problem, thereby providing promising solutions for complex issues. Although there have been over a dozen Bouncecasting studies conducted by the author and different sets of colleagues, this is the first general description of the approach.



中文翻译:

Bouncecasting:一种用于前瞻性的研讨会游戏方法

目的

本文旨在介绍“Bouncecasting”,这是一种研讨会游戏前瞻方法,可用于检查“邪恶问题”,在这些问题中,通向未来的道路不确定且具有延展性,并且主要利益相关者可能对不同的未来有不同的偏好。该方法之所以得名,是因为它在预测和回溯之间来回切换,在不同的利益相关者群体之间提供取舍,并创建和比较描绘似是而非的未来的多个场景。

设计/方法/方法

在定义 Bouncecasting、介绍其主要特征并提供进行 Bouncecasting 研究的推荐方式之后,该方法通过 1998 年至 2004 年间进行的四个 Bouncecasting 项目进行了说明。

发现

这四个项目加在一起表明 Bouncecasting 可以以实用的方式解决一系列棘手的问题。依次考虑的项目显示了该方法的演变。

原创性/价值

Bouncecasting 是一种前瞻性的方法,它以综合方式检查政策问题的多个特征,从而为复杂问题提供有希望的解决方案。尽管作者和不同的同事进行了十多项 Bouncecasting 研究,但这是对该方法的第一个一般性描述。

更新日期:2021-10-04
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