Wildlife models focused solely on a single strong influence (e.g., habitat components, wildlife harvest) are limited in their ability to detect key mechanisms influencing population change. Instead, we propose integrated modeling in the context of cumulative effects assessment using multispecies population dynamics models linked to landscape-climate simulation at large spatial and temporal scales. We developed an integrated landscape and population simulation model using ALCES Online as the model-building platform, and the model accounted for key ecological components and relationships among moose (Alces alces), grey wolves (Canis lupus nubilus), and woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in northern Ontario, Canada. We simulated multiple scenarios over 5 decades (beginning 2020) to explore sensitivity to climate change and land use and assessed effects at multiple scales. The magnitude of effect and the relative importance of key factors (climate change, roads, and habitat) differed depending on the scale of assessment. Across the full extent of the study area (654,311km² [ecozonal scale]), the caribou population declined by 26% largely because of climate change and associated predator-prey response, which led to caribou range recession in the southern part of the study area. At the caribou range scale (108,378 km²), which focused on 2 herds in the northern part of the study area, climate change led to a 10% decline in the population and development led to an additional 7% decline. At the project scale (8,331 km²), which was focused more narrowly on the landscape surrounding 4 proposed mines, the caribou population declined by 29% largely in response to simulated development. Given that observed caribou population dynamics were sensitive to the cumulative effects of climate change, land use, interspecific interactions, and scale, insights from the analysis might not emerge under a less complex model. Our integrated modeling framework provides valuable support for broader regional assessments, including estimation of risk to caribou and Indigenous food security, and for developing and evaluating potential caribou recovery strategies. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.

中文翻译：

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模拟气候和发展对驼鹿、狼和驯鹿种群的累积影响

仅关注单一强大影响（例如栖息地组成部分、野生动物收获）的野生动物模型在检测影响种群变化的关键机制方面的能力有限。相反，我们建议使用与大空间和时间尺度上的景观气候模拟相关的多物种种群动态模型，在累积效应评估的背景下进行综合建模。我们使用 ALCES Online 作为模型构建平台开发了一个综合景观和种群模拟模型，该模型解释了驼鹿 ( Alces alces )、灰狼 ( Canis lupus nubilus ) 和林地驯鹿 ( Rangifer tarandus )之间的关键生态组成和关系驯鹿) 在加拿大安大略省北部。我们模拟了 5 个十年（从 2020 年开始）的多个场景，以探索对气候变化和土地利用的敏感性，并评估多个尺度的影响。影响的大小和关键因素（气候变化、道路和栖息地）的相对重要性因评估规模而异。在整个研究区域范围内（654,311km ² [生态带尺度]），驯鹿数量下降了 26%，主要是因为气候变化和相关的捕食者-猎物反应，导致研究南部的驯鹿范围衰退区域。在驯鹿范围内（108,378 km ²)，重点关注研究区北部的 2 个牛群，气候变化导致人口减少 10%，发展导致人口额外减少 7%。在项目规模（8,331 km ²)，它更专注于 4 个拟建矿山周围的景观，驯鹿数量减少了 29%，主要是由于模拟开发。鉴于观察到的驯鹿种群动态对气候变化、土地利用、种间相互作用和规模的累积影响很敏感，分析的见解可能不会在不太复杂的模型下出现。我们的综合建模框架为更广泛的区域评估提供了宝贵的支持，包括评估驯鹿和土著粮食安全的风险，以及制定和评估潜在的驯鹿恢复策略。© 2021 野生动物协会。