In this study, an integrated framework is proposed for agricultural water and land resources management under uncertain circumstances and energy-water nexus. The framework has two components: the optimized interval solutions generation of unknown market quotation and environment situation through the novel interval fuzzy-expectation programming, and the post-optimization decision-making of the tradeoff between system risk and return through risk-explicit interval programming. An optimization model based on the framework was developed from a real description for agricultural water resources system of Guangdong province under considering various crop, multiple water sources, and the related energy consumption in irrigation and drainage. The impact of energy consumption and risk level control on water resources allocation among different crops and system benefits were analyzed. The results indicated that the preference for surface water resources as the main water sources can effectively reduce regional irrigation energy consumption, and the planting area of each crop would have different variations duo to resources endowment constraints. Risk tradeoff-based results can provide valuable information and additional concern for developing low carbon-oriented agricultural water resources management schemes.

在本研究中，为不确定环境和能源-水关系下的农业水土资源管理提出了一个综合框架。该框架有两个组成部分：通过新颖的区间模糊期望规划生成未知市场报价和环境情况的优化区间解决方案，以及通过风险显式区间规划在系统风险和收益之间权衡的优化后决策。以广东省农业水资源系统的实际描述为基础，在考虑多种作物、多种水源以及相关能源消耗的情况下，建立了基于该框架的优化模型。排灌。分析了能源消耗和风险水平控制对不同作物间水资源配置和系统效益的影响。结果表明，优先选择地表水资源作为主要水源可以有效降低区域灌溉能源消耗，并且由于资源禀赋的限制，每种作物的种植面积会有不同的变化。基于风险权衡的结果可以为开发面向低碳的农业水资源管理计划提供有价值的信息和额外的关注。