In this paper, I examine whether ethnopolitical identities have grown in Ethiopia since the introduction of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s reforms in 2018, using the most recent Ethiopian survey data from the World Values Survey (wave 5, from 2007 and wave 7, from 2020). I find that although there remains a general popular commitment to a national (Ethiopian) identity, among younger people (especially males) there is a growing sense of an “ethnic” identity and a growing intolerance of other ethnic groups. Further, I find that those who express ethnonational identities are significantly more likely to engage in protest and demonstrations. In conclusion, I suggest that this may not portend well for the future of Ethiopian unity. I also suggest that whether this happens also depends on the institutional transformation of the Prosperity Party (the successor the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)) and the level of external support the regime receives from its foreign benefactors.

在本文中，我使用世界价值观调查（第 5 波，2007 年第 5 波和 2020 年第 7 波）的最新埃塞俄比亚调查数据，研究自 2018 年总理阿比·艾哈迈德（Abiy Ahmed）推行改革以来，埃塞俄比亚的民族政治认同是否有所增长。 . 我发现，虽然人们仍然普遍对民族（埃塞俄比亚）身份认同，但在年轻人（尤其是男性）中，“民族”身份认同感越来越强，对其他族裔群体的不容忍感越来越强。此外，我发现那些表达民族身份的人更有可能参与抗议和示威活动。总之，我认为这对埃塞俄比亚统一的未来可能不是好兆头。