This paper presents the historical development of the authoritarian Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) with particular attention to its origins in civil war and its use of multi-national federal structures to balance centralizing dynamics and demands for regional autonomy. It argues that the reform process launched by Prime Minister Abiy and the formation of the successor Prosperity Party failed to overcome the challenges and political logics that undermined the EPRDF. The article concludes by examining the prospects of the center to manage these contradictions and bind together the distinct and highly polarized regions and political interests.

中文翻译：

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EPRDF的起源和繁荣党的前景

本文介绍了专制的埃塞俄比亚人民革命民主阵线 (EPRDF) 的历史发展，特别关注其在内战中的起源及其使用多国联邦结构来平衡集权动态和区域自治需求的情况。它认为，阿比总理发起的改革进程和继任者繁荣党的组建未能克服破坏 EPRDF 的挑战和政治逻辑。文章最后考察了中央处理这些矛盾并将不同且高度分化的地区和政治利益结合在一起的前景。