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A picture of regret: An empirical investigation of post-Brexit referendum survey data
Rationality and Society ( IF 0.895 ) Pub Date : 2021-08-02 , DOI: 10.1177/10434631211035202
Alan Collins 1 , Adam Cox 2 , Gianpiero Torrisi 3
Affiliation  

Whilst the properties of decision regret have been widely explored in experimental and game theoretic studies, the empirical features of regret from large-scale ‘binary decision’ national events in practice have garnered less scrutiny. This study is an empirical investigation of novel survey data reporting ‘Brexit’ voting choices and expressions of a desire to change voting choices post-referendum. We investigate if Leave voters are more or less likely to express a change to their binary referendum vote choice than those who voted Remain or abstained and then identify the particular characteristics of those who regret their vote choice. A large-scale pan-European survey is used to capture citizens’ perceptions of the European Union containing 17,147 interviews of adults from 15 EU member states. Using responses from UK citizens (n = 1500), focus is directed to the vote choice for the ‘Brexit’ referendum and the corresponding choice if the referendum were held ‘today’. Probit regression estimation identifies the key differences in the characteristics of those who expressed regret by indicating a desire to change voting choices. Results show that knowledge of EU funding policies, permanence of residential location, population size of the local area, educational attainment, employment status and income are key drivers for regretting the referendum voting decision.



中文翻译:

遗憾的图景:英国脱欧后公投调查数据的实证调查

虽然决策后悔的特性在实验和博弈论研究中得到了广泛的探索,但在实践中,大规模“二元决策”国家事件的后悔的经验特征却很少受到关注。本研究是对报告“英国退欧”投票选择的新颖调查数据以及在公投后改变投票选择的愿望的实证调查。我们调查与投票留欧或弃权的选民相比,脱欧选民是否更可能或多或少地表达对二元公投投票选择的改变,然后确定那些对自己的投票选择感到后悔的人的特定特征。一项大规模的泛欧调查用于捕捉公民对欧盟的看法,其中包含对来自 15 个欧盟成员国的 17,147 名成年人的采访。使用英国公民的回答(n  = 1500),重点是“英国退欧”公投的投票选择以及“今天”举行公投的相应选择。概率回归估计通过表明改变投票选择的愿望来确定那些表达遗憾的人特征的关键差异。结果表明,对欧盟资助政策的了解、居住地点的永久性、当地人口规模、教育程度、就业状况和收入是对公投投票决定感到遗憾的关键驱动因素。

更新日期:2021-08-02
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