The COVID-19 pandemic reached staggering new peaks during a global resurgence more than a year after the crisis began. Although public health guidelines initially helped to slow the spread of disease, widespread pandemic fatigue and prolonged harm to financial stability and mental well-being contributed to this resurgence. In the late stage of the pandemic, it became clear that new interventions were needed to support long-term behavior change. Here, we examined subjective perceived risk about COVID-19 and the relationship between perceived risk and engagement in risky behaviors. In study 1 (n = 303), we found that subjective perceived risk was likely inaccurate but predicted compliance with public health guidelines. In study 2 (n = 735), we developed a multifaceted intervention designed to realign perceived risk with actual risk. Participants completed an episodic simulation task; we expected that imagining a COVID-related scenario would increase the salience of risk information and enhance behavior change. Immediately following the episodic simulation, participants completed a risk estimation task with individualized feedback about local viral prevalence. We found that information prediction error, a measure of surprise, drove beneficial change in perceived risk and willingness to engage in risky activities. Imagining a COVID-related scenario beforehand enhanced the effect of prediction error on learning. Importantly, our intervention produced lasting effects that persisted after a 1- to 3-wk delay. Overall, we describe a fast and feasible online intervention that effectively changed beliefs and intentions about risky behaviors.

危机开始一年多后，新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 大流行在全球范围内再度流行，达到了令人震惊的新高峰。尽管公共卫生指南最初有助于减缓疾病的传播，但广泛的流行病疲劳以及对金融稳定和心理健康的长期损害导致了这种死灰复燃。在大流行的后期，很明显需要新的干预措施来支持长期的行为改变。在这里，我们研究了有关 COVID-19 的主观感知风险以及感知风险与参与危险行为之间的关系。在研究 1（n = 303）中，我们发现主观感知风险可能不准确，但可以预测遵守公共卫生指南的情况。在研究 2（n = 735）中，我们开发了一种多方面的干预措施，旨在重新调整感知风险与实际风险。参与者完成情景模拟任务；我们预计，想象一个与新冠病毒相关的场景将增加风险信息的显着性并促进行为改变。在情景模拟之后，参与者立即完成了风险评估任务，并提供了有关当地病毒流行情况的个性化反馈。我们发现，信息预测误差（一种意外程度的衡量标准）推动了感知风险和参与风险活动意愿的有益变化。提前想象与新冠病毒相关的场景可以增强预测错误对学习的影响。重要的是，我们的干预产生了持久的效果，并且在延迟 1 至 3 周后仍持续存在。总的来说，我们描述了一种快速且可行的在线干预措施，可以有效改变对危险行为的信念和意图。