Rainfed crop production predominates in West Africa. Rice is an important staple food, especially in Senegal. The scope for increase in rice production under irrigated conditions is uncertain. Rainfed rice is therefore a key component for regional food security impelling agronomists to assess climate change impact on rainfed rice yield and to design rainfed rice ideotypes suited to future climate scenarios. The DSSAT CSM-CERES-Rice model was thus calibrated and evaluated on 19 agronomic experiments conducted in 2012, 2013, and 2014, in 6 locations, with 21 cultivars and two fertilization levels (20 and 80 kg N ha⁻¹). Simulations were then carried out with the crop model forced with the downscaled projections of seven climate models, with and without considering the impact of an increase in atmospheric [CO₂], using an ensemble of global circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Simulated rice yield was divided by two over the century with RCP8.5 and stagnated with RCP2.6. Elevated [CO₂] significantly increased yields, but this effect could not offset the yield decline due to elevated temperatures. Cultivars with longer vegetative phases and greater temperature tolerance were better adapted to climate change than current cultivars. Using these new cultivars with the recommended fertilization rate (80 kg N ha⁻¹) could offset the yield decline due to climate change. For the first time, we bring together a study based on a process-based crop model handling crop response to elevated [CO₂], a large set of field experiments and up-to-date climate projections (i) to provide useful insights into plausible impacts of climate change on rainfed rice in Senegal and (ii) to identify cultivar characteristics relevant for adaptation to future possible climates. Our findings will help set priorities for breeding resilient cultivar in the region.

雨养作物生产在西非占主导地位。大米是重要的主食，尤其是在塞内加尔。灌溉条件下水稻增产的范围不确定。因此，雨养水稻是区域粮食安全的关键组成部分，促使农学家评估气候变化对雨养水稻产量的影响，并设计适合未来气候情景的雨养水稻意识形态。DSSAT CSM-CERES-Rice 模型因此在 2012 年、2013 年和 2014 年在 6 个地点进行的 19 次农艺试验中进行了校准和评估，其中包括 21 个栽培品种和两种施肥水平（20 和 80 kg N ha ^-1）。然后使用作物模型进行模拟，强制使用七个气候模型的缩小预测，并考虑或不考虑大气 [CO₂ ]，使用全球环流模型和两个代表性浓度路径（RCP2.6 和 RCP8.5）的集合。模拟水稻产量在一个世纪内被 RCP8.5 一分为二，而 RCP2.6 则停滞不前。升高的 [CO ₂ ] 显着增加了产量，但这种效果无法抵消由于温度升高导致的产量下降。与现有品种相比，具有更长营养期和更高温度耐受性的品种更能适应气候变化。以推荐的施肥率（80 kg N ha ^-1）使用这些新品种可以抵消气候变化导致的产量下降。我们首次汇集了一项基于过程的作物模型的研究，该模型处理作物对升高的 [CO ₂]，大量田间试验和最新的气候预测（i）提供有用的见解，以了解气候变化对塞内加尔雨养水稻的合理影响，以及（ii）确定与适应未来可能的气候相关的品种特征。我们的研究结果将有助于确定在该地区培育弹性品种的优先事项。