The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused more than 150 million cases of infection to date and poses a serious threat to global public health. In this study, global COVID-19 data were used to examine the dynamical variations from the perspectives of immunity and contact of 84 countries across the five climate regions: tropical, arid, temperate, and cold. A new approach named Yi Hua Jie Mu is proposed to obtain the transmission rates based on the COVID-19 data between the countries with the same climate region over the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere. Our results suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic will persist over a long period of time or enter into regular circulation in multiple periods of 1–2 years. Moreover, based on the simulated results by the COVID-19 data, it is found that the temperate and cold climate regions have higher infection rates than the tropical and arid climate regions, which indicates that climate may modulate the transmission of COVID-19. The role of the climate on the COVID-19 variations should be concluded with more data and more cautions. The non-pharmaceutical interventions still play the key role in controlling and prevention this global pandemic.

中文翻译：

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基于 SEICR 疾病模型的全球 COVID-19 大流行的动态变化：易华洁木的新方法

迄今为止，持续的 2019 年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 大流行已造成超过 1.5 亿例感染病例，并对全球公共卫生构成严重威胁。在这项研究中，全球 COVID-19 数据被用于从热带、干旱、温带和寒冷五个气候区的 84 个国家的免疫和接触的角度检查动态变化。提出了一种名为 Yi Hua Jie Mu 的新方法，以根据北半球和南半球具有相同气候区域的国家之间的 COVID-19 数据获取传播率。我们的研究结果表明，COVID-19 大流行将持续很长一段时间，或在 1-2 年的多个时期内进入正常循环。此外，根据 COVID-19 数据的模拟结果，发现温带和寒冷气候地区的感染率高于热带和干旱气候地区，这表明气候可能调节了 COVID-19 的传播。气候对 COVID-19 变异的作用应该用更多的数据和更多的警告来总结。非药物干预措施仍然在控制和预防这一全球大流行中发挥着关键作用。