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Assessing the Uncertainty of Hydropower-Environmental Conflict-Resolution Management under Climate Change
Water ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-31 , DOI: 10.3390/w13152114
Yuni Xu , Yu Hui

To balance the water demands of different departments and produce a win–win result for reservoir operation, a series of conflict-resolution methods have been developed to define the socio-optimal operation strategy for specific conflict problems. However, given the inherent uncertainty of reservoir operation brought by climate change, the compromised strategies selected by conflict-resolution methods can vary. Therefore, quantifying the impacts of climate change on the decision characteristics of conflict-resolution methods can help to address questions about whether conflict-resolution decisions are sustainable given unforeseen changes. In this study, the Yangtze River is regarded as study area. As a world-class hydropower project located on the midstream of Yangtze River, Three Gorges Hydroelectric Power Station can transfer plenty of water energy into electricity. To alleviate the ecological water shortage caused by hydropower operation, sustainable and balanced operation strategies considering the water demands of two departments needs to be studied. In the context of hydropower-environmental conflict-resolution management, the decision behaviors of two fuzzy social choice methods and four game-theoretical bargaining methods under 25 kinds of future climate scenarios are analyzed. Comparing the strategy selection results of different methods for a future period (2021–2082) shows that in all proposed climate scenarios, the decisions of the Nash bargaining method, alternating offer method, and unanimity fallback bargaining method in game-theoretical bargaining methods are more stable than other studied methods, which means that climate change affects the decision behaviors of these three methods slightly. In addition, balanced strategies selected by these three methods could formulate adaptable reservoir operation policies that would satisfy the interests of hydropower and environmental stakeholders equally, and avoid a very low satisfaction level of individual stakeholder and whole stakeholders in the water-conflict year. Therefore, against the background of an increasing demand for environmental protection, these three methods can provide socio-optimal strategies considering social and economic benefits for water resource management.

中文翻译:

评估气候变化下水电-环境冲突解决管理的不确定性

为了平衡不同部门的用水需求,实现水库运营的双赢,开发了一系列解决冲突的方法,以针对特定的冲突问题确定社会最优运营策略。然而,考虑到气候变化带来的水库运行固有的不确定性,冲突解决方法选择的妥协策略可能会有所不同。因此,量化气候变化对冲突解决方法决策特征的影响有助于解决冲突解决决策在不可预见的变化下是否可持续的问题。本研究以长江为研究区。作为位于长江中游的世界级水电工程,三峡水电站可以将大量的水能转化为电能。为缓解水电运行造成的生态缺水问题,需要研究考虑两部门用水需求的可持续均衡运行策略。在水电-环境冲突解决管理的背景下,分析了25种未来气候情景下两种模糊社会选择方法和四种博弈论谈判方法的决策行为。比较未来时期(2021-2082)不同方法的策略选择结果表明,在所有提出的气候情景中,博弈论谈判方法中纳什讨价还价法、交替报价法和一致回退讨价还价法的决策更多比其他研究方法稳定,这意味着气候变化对这三种方法的决策行为的影响很小。此外,这三种方法选择的平衡策略可以制定适应性强的水库运营政策,既满足水电利益相关者的利益,也满足环境利益相关者的利益,避免水冲突年中单个利益相关者和整个利益相关者的满意度很低。因此,在环境保护需求日益增加的背景下,这三种方法可以为水资源管理提供考虑社会和经济效益的社会最优策略。这三种方法选择的平衡策略可以制定适应性强的水库运营政策,既满足水电利益相关者的利益,也满足环境利益相关者的利益,避免水冲突年个体利益相关者和整个利益相关者的满意度很低。因此,在环境保护需求日益增加的背景下,这三种方法可以为水资源管理提供考虑社会和经济效益的社会最优策略。这三种方法选择的平衡策略可以制定适应性强的水库运营政策,既满足水电利益相关者的利益,也满足环境利益相关者的利益,避免水冲突年个体利益相关者和整个利益相关者的满意度很低。因此,在环境保护需求日益增加的背景下,这三种方法可以为水资源管理提供考虑社会和经济效益的社会最优策略。
更新日期:2021-08-01
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