Previous literature have shown that warming temperatures due to climate change are likely to decrease mean crop yields and increase crop yield risk. However, there is limited understanding of how crop insurance participation can potentially affect the adverse crop yield impacts of warming (or extreme heat). This study specifically examines whether crop insurance participation influences the impact of extreme heat on yield risk (i.e. yield variance, skewness and kurtosis). We utilise a parametric moment-based method and county-level panel data to evaluate how crop insurance participation affects the relationship between warming temperatures and the moments of crop yield distributions. Our results indicate that the yield risk increasing effect of warming is further magnified under high levels of crop insurance participation. This result still holds even when allowing for long-run adaptation (although the crop insurance effect tends to be weaker in this case). In general, our results indicate that not only does crop insurance participation adversely impact mean yields under climate change, it also influences the extent by which warming affects yield variability over time. This supports the notion that crop insurance can serve as a disincentive for climate change adaptation in agriculture.

中文翻译：

---

气温升高、产量风险和作物保险参与

以前的文献表明，气候变化导致的气温升高可能会降低平均作物产量并增加作物产量风险。然而，对于农作物保险参与如何潜在地影响变暖（或极端高温）对农作物产量的不利影响的理解有限。本研究专门研究了农作物保险参与是否会影响极端高温对产量风险（即产量变化、偏度和峰度）的影响。我们利用基于参数的矩方法和县级面板数据来评估作物保险参与如何影响变暖温度和作物产量分布时刻之间的关系。我们的研究结果表明，在高水平的农作物保险参与下，变暖的产量风险增加效应进一步放大。即使考虑到长期适应，这一结果仍然成立（尽管在这种情况下作物保险效应往往较弱）。总的来说，我们的研究结果表明，参与农作物保险不仅会对气候变化下的平均单产产生不利影响，而且还会影响变暖对单产随时间变化的影响程度。这支持了作物保险可以抑制农业适应气候变化的观点。