In this paper we argue that loans collateralized by new construction are more likely to go into default relative to purchase loans for existing homes because of non-linear depreciation schedules and appraisal complications. Using loan-level mortgage records for about 4 million loans originated between 2004 and 2009, we provide strong empirical evidence in support of this hypothesis. The unconditional default rate for mortgages used to purchase new construction was 5 percentage points higher than the default rates for other purchase loans in our sample. In models that include extensive controls for borrower and loan characteristics as well as Census-tract-origination-year fixed effects, we find that loans for new homes were roughly 1.7 percentage points more likely to default, while our instrumental variables analysis suggests that new-home loans are 4.5 percentage points more likely to default.

在本文中，我们认为，由于非线性折旧时间表和评估复杂性，新建筑抵押贷款相对于购买现有房屋的贷款更有可能违约。使用 2004 年至 2009 年间约 400 万笔贷款的贷款级抵押记录，我们提供了强有力的实证证据来支持这一假设。在我们的样本中，用于购买新建筑的抵押贷款的无条件违约率比其他购买贷款的违约率高 5 个百分点。在包括对借款人和贷款特征的广泛控制以及人口普查起始年固定效应的模型中，我们发现新房贷款违约的可能性大约高 1.7 个百分点，