Macroeconomic Dynamics ( IF 1.325 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-30 , DOI: 10.1017/s1365100521000341 Matthew Hall 1 , Aditi Thapar 2
We present a new methodology that uses professional forecasts to estimate the effects of fiscal policy. We use short-term forecasts to better identify exogenous shocks to government spending by controlling for anticipatory information already in the public domain. We use longer-term forecasts to net out expectations from the future path of other variables, which improves accuracy and efficiency by focusing on more precise measures of the impact of shocks. We show that this improves the statistical fit relative to both local projection methods and vector autoregression-based analyses that do not control for the entire future path of expectations.
中文翻译:
政府支出的经济影响:使用预期数据控制信息
我们提出了一种使用专业预测来估计财政政策影响的新方法。我们使用短期预测,通过控制已经在公共领域的预期信息,更好地识别对政府支出的外生冲击。我们使用长期预测从其他变量的未来路径中剔除预期,通过专注于更精确地衡量冲击的影响来提高准确性和效率。我们表明,这提高了相对于局部投影方法和基于矢量自回归的分析的统计拟合,这些分析不控制整个未来的预期路径。