Bite force is an ecologically important biomechanical performance measure that is informative in inferring the ecology of extinct taxa. However, biomechanical modelling to estimate bite force is associated with some level of uncertainty. Here, I assess the accuracy of bite force estimates in extinct taxa using a Bayesian phylogenetic prediction model. I first fitted a phylogenetic regression model on a training set comprising extant data. The model predicts bite force from body mass and skull width while accounting for differences owing to biting position. The posterior predictive model has a 93% prediction accuracy as evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation. I then predicted bite force in 37 species of extinct mammals and archosaurs from the posterior distribution of predictive models, generating posterior predictive distributions of null expectations given body mass, skull width and phylogenetic position. Biomechanically estimated bite forces from the literature fall within the posterior predictive distributions for all except four species of extinct taxa and are thus as accurate as predicted from body size and skull width, given the variation inherent in extant taxa and the amount of time available for variance to accrue. Biomechanical modelling remains a valuable means to estimate bite force in extinct taxa and should be reliably informative of functional performances and serve to provide insights into past ecologies.

中文翻译：

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使用系统发育预测评估已灭绝哺乳动物和主龙的咬合力估计

咬合力是一种重要的生态学生物力学性能指标，可用于推断已灭绝分类群的生态学。然而，用于估计咬合力的生物力学模型与一定程度的不确定性有关。在这里，我使用贝叶斯系统发育预测模型评估已灭绝分类群中咬合力估计的准确性。我首先在包含现有数据的训练集上拟合了系统发育回归模型。该模型根据体重和颅骨宽度预测咬合力，同时考虑到咬合位置的差异。后验预测模型的预测准确度为 93%，使用留一法交叉验证进行评估。然后我根据预测模型的后验分布预测了 37 种已灭绝哺乳动物和主龙的咬合力，产生给定体重、颅骨宽度和系统发育位置的空期望的后验预测分布。除了四种已灭绝的分类群外，文献中的生物力学估计咬合力都属于后验预测分布，因此与根据体型和头骨宽度预测的一样准确，考虑到现存分类群的固有变异和可用于变异的时间量累积。生物力学建模仍然是估计已灭绝分类群咬合力的一种有价值的手段，应该能够可靠地提供功能性能的信息，并有助于提供对过去生态的见解。除了四种已灭绝的分类群外，文献中的生物力学估计咬合力都属于后验预测分布，因此与根据体型和头骨宽度预测的一样准确，考虑到现存分类群的固有变异和可用于变异的时间量累积。生物力学建模仍然是估计已灭绝分类群咬合力的一种有价值的手段，应该能够可靠地提供功能性能的信息，并有助于提供对过去生态的见解。除了四种已灭绝的分类群外，文献中的生物力学估计咬合力都属于后验预测分布，因此与根据体型和头骨宽度预测的一样准确，考虑到现存分类群的固有变异和可用于变异的时间量累积。生物力学建模仍然是估计已灭绝分类群咬合力的一种有价值的手段，应该能够可靠地提供功能性能的信息，并有助于提供对过去生态的见解。