We propose a new measure of macroeconomic disagreement, using dispersions of forecasts of a wide range of financial, activity and inflation variables from both household and professional surveys at various frequencies. With a mixed-frequency state-space model, we construct macroeconomic disagreement estimates of the one-year ahead expected state of the economy. Impulse responses show disagreement shocks lead to a contraction in economic activity.

中文翻译：

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衡量宏观经济分歧——混合频率方法

我们提出了一种衡量宏观经济分歧的新方法，使用来自不同频率的家庭和专业调查的各种金融、活动和通胀变量的预测离散度。使用混合频率状态空间模型，我们构建了未来一年预期经济状态的宏观经济差异估计。冲动反应显示分歧冲击导致经济活动收缩。