Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization ( IF 2.000 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-30 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2021.07.004 Alessia Cafferata 1 , Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández 2, 3 , Serena Sordi 3
Psychologists among other behavioural scientists refer to the tendency of favouring, interpreting, and searching for information that supports one’s prior beliefs as confirmation bias. Given the relevance of the topic to the field, we develop a small-scale agent-based model in discrete-time to investigate how employment conditions affect attitudes towards climate policies under such a cognitive bias. Our narrative resembles the so-called discrete-choice approach. It is assumed that the respective probability functions respond to variations in the employment rate. Persistent endogenous fluctuations might emerge via a super-critical Neimark-Sacker bifurcation. Furthermore, depending on the strength of agents’ response to the collective opinion, we might have coexistence of periodic attractors as a representation of path dependence. In terms of policy implications, we highlight that the adoption of a successful green-agenda depends on the ability of policy-makers to take advantage of favourable conditions in the labour market while appealing to different framing strategies.
中文翻译:
看到可以(不)看到的:确认偏差、就业动态和气候变化
心理学家和其他行为科学家将偏爱、解释和搜索支持自己先前信念的信息的倾向称为确认偏见. 鉴于该主题与该领域的相关性,我们在离散时间开发了一个基于代理的小规模模型,以研究在这种认知偏差下就业条件如何影响对气候政策的态度。我们的叙述类似于所谓的离散选择方法。假设各个概率函数对就业率的变化做出反应。持续的内生波动可能会通过超临界 Neimark-Sacker 分岔出现。此外,根据代理对集体意见的反应强度,我们可能会同时存在周期性吸引子作为路径依赖的表示。在政策影响方面,