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Developing a perspective on the use of renewable energy in Iran
Technological Forecasting and Social Change ( IF 12.0 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-30 , DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121049
Mahya Ghouchani 1 , Mohammad Taji 2 , Atefeh Sadat Cheheltani 3 , Mohammad Seifi Chehr 4
Affiliation  

Despite numerable resources in Iran, the issue of renewable energies and the formulation of a grand strategy for the future are very important. This study identifies the most important effective factors, the extent and how they affect, and finally the possible scenarios for the future status of renewable energy in Iran. Therefore, this study was an applied descriptive-analytical study that is using expert groups and the Delphi method to identify the influential factors. After extraction of assumptions and prominent trends in Iran's renewable energy future (using cross-impact analysis in the MICMAC software), the effect of these trends on key variables was qualitatively determined (using causal layered analysis). This study presents Iran's renewable energy future scenarios in three dimensions of "long-term technology acquisition programs", "policy stabilization" and "attraction of foreign capital". The results showed that the success of the planning and implementation of renewable energy policy relies on the selection of policies that are the most adaptive with national targets, technical abilities, and the country's economy. Therefore, it is necessary to acquire accurate identification of limitations, obstacles, available facilities and technologies, international sanctions, and foreign investment in detail to develop the comprehensive plan of renewable energy efficiently and implement it successfully.



中文翻译:

展望伊朗使用可再生能源

尽管伊朗拥有大量资源,但可再生能源问题和制定未来大战略非常重要。本研究确定了最重要的有效因素、影响的程度和方式,最后确定了伊朗可再生能源未来状况的可能情景。因此,本研究是应用描述分析研究,使用专家组和德尔菲法来识别影响因素。在提取伊朗可再生能源未来的假设和突出趋势(使用 MICMAC 软件中的交叉影响分析)后,定性确定了这些趋势对关键变量的影响(使用因果分层分析)。本研究从三个维度展示了伊朗的可再生能源未来情景:结果表明,可再生能源政策规划和实施的成功取决于选择最符合国家目标、技术能力和国家经济的政策。因此,需要准确识别限制、障碍、可用设施和技术、国际制裁和外国投资,以有效地制定并成功实施可再生能源的综合计划。结果表明,可再生能源政策规划和实施的成功取决于选择最符合国家目标、技术能力和国家经济的政策。因此,需要准确识别限制、障碍、可用设施和技术、国际制裁和外国投资,以有效地制定并成功实施可再生能源的综合计划。

更新日期:2021-07-30
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