This paper provides an extensive analysis of card spending during the COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey by using weekly aggregated and sectoral credit and debit card spending data from March 2014 to December 2020. At an aggregated level, we show that aggregate demand decreases significantly at the early stages of COVID-19 and seems to reinstate its pre-COVID trend. However, when we include the pre-existing conditions of Turkey, the 2018 currency crisis, we observe that the recovery in demand is not that strong. To highlight the underlying reasons for structural change in aggregate demand, we estimate the model with stringency index and unemployment-related search index. The estimated model indicates that containment measures and restrictions and fear of job/income loss mainly explain the overall impact of COVID-19 on aggregate demand. We also examined sectoral data to understand aggregate demand dynamics better. Only stable and delayable sector groups have reached a trend above their pre-pandemic trajectories. However, the social and work-related sectors are far from their respective pre-pandemic trend.

本文使用 2014 年 3 月至 2020 年 12 月的每周汇总和部门信用卡和借记卡支出数据，对土耳其 COVID-19 大流行期间的信用卡支出进行了广泛分析。 COVID-19 的早期阶段，似乎恢复了其 COVID-19 之前的趋势。然而，当我们将土耳其的既存状况、2018 年货币危机考虑在内时，我们观察到需求的复苏并不那么强劲。为了突出总需求结构变化的根本原因，我们使用严格指数和失业相关搜索指数估计模型. 估计模型表明，遏制措施和限制以及对工作/收入损失的恐惧主要解释了 COVID-19 对总需求的总体影响。我们还检查了部门数据以更好地了解总需求动态。只有稳定和可延迟的部门群体才能达到高于大流行前轨迹的趋势。然而，社会和与工作相关的部门与各自的大流行前趋势相去甚远。